Recommended as Stock of the Week on October 31, 2025

Intercontinental Exchange: Stock exchange lord with AI ambitions

TickerICE.NYSE
Recommended Price146.29 USD
Current Price 146.29 USD
Intercontinental Exchange Inc – stock chart

Scores at time of recommendation (October 31, 2025)

Leeway Score
75/100
Excellent
Business Rating
82/100
Excellent
Market-Fit Rating
88/100
Excellent
Cycle Rating
54/100
Fair

More about our scores in Help

5-year stock timeline

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — concise 2020–2026 timeline; latest price 155.82 as of 2026-03-25.

Timeline of events

In September 2020, ICE acquired Ellie Mae to expand its mortgage technology business. The company then announced a Bakkt combination in 2021 and pursued a transformational acquisition of Black Knight, announced in 2022. That deal faced FTC scrutiny but closed with required divestitures in 2023. Through 2024 and 2025, ICE reported record revenues with sustained earnings growth, and made a strategic investment in event-data platform Polymarket in 2025.

Investor narrative

Market perception shifted from viewing ICE as a mortgage-tech and selective growth acquirer in 2020–2021 toward seeing it as an "all-weather" compounder leveraging recurring data, listings and clearing revenue. The Black Knight transaction introduced a period of regulatory and integration concern that weighed on near-term sentiment, but consistent record revenues, dividend distributions and recurring-revenue strength restored confidence by 2024–25.

Technical phases

ICE fell to the $70s in March 2020 before recovering steadily into a $120–$140 range by late 2021. From 2022 through early 2023, the stock consolidated between $90–$110 with periodic weakness driven by macro volatility and deal uncertainty. Beginning in 2024, as record revenues and strong earnings materialized and major M&A closed, the stock rallied into the $150–$185 area, settling near $155.82 in March 2026.

Key catalysts

Large mortgage-tech acquisitions—Ellie Mae in 2020 and Black Knight announced 2022, closed 2023—materially shifted the growth profile and investor expectations. Crypto and innovation exposure through Bakkt and later strategic investments signaled optional upside beyond core exchange and data operations. Regulatory scrutiny around Black Knight created discrete volatility, while recurring revenue strength and record results drove the principal longer-term rerating.

Key Points

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

  • Net profit margin climbed from 26.3% to 31% - well above the industry average
  • Q3 quarterly results: EPS +10% to $1.71, recurring revenues +5%
  • $2 billion Investment in Polymarket for expansion into decentralized forecasting markets
  • AI platform 'Aurora' automates workflows and accelerates product development
  • $674 million returned to shareholders, of which $400 million Share buybacks

Investment Thesis

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

ICE combines the stability of quasi-monopolistic exchange infrastructure with strategic investments in AI and blockchain technologies. The company benefits from one of the strongest moats in the financial sector, as regulatory hurdles and network effects practically exclude new competitors. The margin increase from 26.3% to 31% underlines the operational excellence, while the diversification into data services and mortgage technology reduces the dependency on cyclical trading volumes. With its Polymarket investment and the Aurora AI platform, ICE is positioning itself as an infrastructure provider for the next generation of financial markets.

Key risks and downside factors

Intercontinental Exchange operates in exchanges, clearinghouses, and market-data services alongside heavyweight competitors like CME Group and Nasdaq. Its fortunes rise and fall with trading volumes and volatility, while it navigates intense competition in data and clearing services, regulatory pressure on its fee structures, and the operational demands of maintaining clearing infrastructure.

  • Global exchange operators and market-data providers are competing intensely for fees and market share, which creates ongoing pressure on margins.
  • Revenue can swing significantly when trading volumes and open interest fluctuate, which directly impacts transaction and clearing income during periods of market weakness.
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny around market-data pricing, listings, and consolidation poses risks that could constrain business models or necessitate structural changes [page:2].
  • Operational, technology, or clearing failures—including cyberattacks—that could halt trading or clearing operations and result in financial and reputational losses [1].

Competitive landscape

Intercontinental Exchange operates in a concentrated market dominated by a handful of formidable competitors—CME Group, Nasdaq, Cboe, LSEG, S&P Global, and Deutsche Börse—each vying for share across exchanges, data services, and analytics. ICE's integrated model, which bundles trading, clearing, and data into a single offering, creates genuine network effects that make the platform stickier. But that same integration also means ICE faces pressure from specialists: rivals focused purely on trading venues, others on post-trade services, still others on analytics alone. The real vulnerabilities lie in three places. Clearing and regulatory competition could intensify, chipping away at margins. Data and analytics rivals keep pushing on price. And perhaps most importantly, ICE's fee revenue moves with market liquidity and volatility—when markets quiet down, so does the till.

CompanyTicker
CME Group Inc.CME.NASDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc.NDAQ.NASDAQ
S&P Global Inc.SPGI.NYSE
London Stock Exchange Group plcLSEG.LSE

Private competitors

  • Bloomberg L.P.
  • The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC)

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Catalysts

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

  • Further growth in recurring data revenues in the high single-digit range in Q4
  • Rollout of the Aurora AI platform for workflow automation
  • Polymarket integration could open up new revenue streams in event-based markets
  • Potential interest rate cuts would boost the Mortgage Technology segment

Analysis

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

ICE's business model is based on structural competitive advantages that are protected by strict regulation and network effects. The combination of exchange, clearing and data business creates a unique market position in which customers remain exceptionally loyal due to systemically relevant dependencies. Even economic downturns can hardly affect the recurring turnover, as trading and clearing are part of the financial industry's basic equipment. Current investments in AI automation and decentralized markets are expanding this moat into promising areas. With a P/E ratio of 27 and an analyst consensus of $198.75, the share offers solid upside potential, even if the premium valuation assumes sustained growth.

Performance Figures of Intercontinental Exchange Inc

in USD

1M High / Low
168.00 / 152.38
52W High / Low
189.35 / 143.17
5Y High / Low
189.35 / 88.60
1M
-4.24%
3M
-2.58%
6M
-2.68%
1Y
-7.21%
3Y
+56.62%
5Y
+46.90%

Relative Performance vs Benchmarks

PeriodIntercontinental Exchange Inc vs DAX vs S&P 500 (SPY)
1M -4.24% +1.73% +0.75%
3M -2.58% +2.82% +1.79%
6M -2.68% +2.29% -0.41%
1Y -7.21% -9.99% -24.47%
3Y +56.62% +8.39% -8.46%
5Y +46.90% -6.45% -26.92%

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Historical valuation trends

How the company’s key valuation ratios (P/E, P/S, P/B and P/CF) have evolved over time compared to today.

PeriodP/E RatioP/S RatioP/B RatioP/CF Ratio
Current27.27.13.119.3
1Y ago35.88.23.621.8
3Y ago40.56.12.517.0
5Y ago30.37.43.220.4

Frequently Asked Questions

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

Is Intercontinental Exchange a good investment?

Intercontinental Exchange has a Leeway Score of 74.6/100, which is rated as Excellent. The Leeway Score combines business quality, fundamental evaluation, and valuation cycle into a comprehensive assessment. A higher score indicates stronger investment quality based on AI-powered fundamental analysis.

What does Intercontinental Exchange do?

Intercontinental Exchange is a company characterized by the following investment thesis: Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, such as commodities, interest rates, foreign exchange and equities, and corporate and exchange-traded funds, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. The Fixed Income and Data Services segment provides fixed income pricing, reference data, indices, analytics, and execution services, as well as global CDS clearing and multi-asset class data delivery technology. The Mortgage Technology segment offers a technology platform that provides customers comprehensive and digital workflow tools to address inefficiencies and mitigate risks that exist in the U.S. residential mortgage market life cycle from application through closing, servicing, and the secondary market. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. Intercontinental Exchange Inc operates in the Financial Services / Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry is based in USA employs around 12,844 people. Intercontinental Exchange Inc recently reported revenue of about 9.93B USD, a profit margin of 33.38%, return on equity of 11.89%, a market capitalisation around 89.68B USD, valuation multiples of roughly 27.3x earnings, 9x sales, 3.2x book value. Analyst consensus currently expects earnings per share of around 8.58 USD with year‑over‑year growth of 11.20%. Intercontinental Exchange Inc has an ongoing dividend policy and pays around 1.92 USD per share (1.22% yield).

What are the key metrics for ICE.NYSE?

Key metrics for ICE.NYSE include valuation (P/E 27, P/S 8.8, P/B 3.2), profitability (profit margin 31.00%, ROE 11.06%), and growth (revenue 9.80%, earnings 34.50%). Market capitalization is 85.02B USD. These metrics give an overview of the company's financial performance and valuation.

How has Intercontinental Exchange's stock price performed?

Intercontinental Exchange's stock has returned — over 1 year, — over 3 years, and — over 5 years. Performance can vary depending on market conditions and company developments.

How is ICE.NYSE valued?

ICE.NYSE has the following valuation metrics: P/E Ratio: 27, P/S Ratio: 8.8, P/B Ratio: 3.2. These metrics help assess whether the stock is fairly valued compared to its fundamentals.

What are the growth catalysts for Intercontinental Exchange?

The key growth catalysts for Intercontinental Exchange are:
  • Further growth in recurring data revenues in the high single-digit range in Q4
  • Rollout of the Aurora AI platform for workflow automation
  • Polymarket integration could open up new revenue streams in event-based markets
  • Potential interest rate cuts would boost the Mortgage Technology segment
These factors can positively influence the company's future growth and performance.

What are the key risks when investing in ICE.NYSE?

Key risks for ICE.NYSE include: Intercontinental Exchange operates in exchanges, clearinghouses, and market-data services alongside heavyweight competitors like CME Group and Nasdaq. Its fortunes rise and fall with trading volumes and volatility, while it navigates intense competition in data and clearing services, regulatory pressure on its fee structures, and the operational demands of maintaining clearing infrastructure.
  • Global exchange operators and market-data providers are competing intensely for fees and market share, which creates ongoing pressure on margins.
  • Revenue can swing significantly when trading volumes and open interest fluctuate, which directly impacts transaction and clearing income during periods of market weakness.
  • Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny around market-data pricing, listings, and consolidation poses risks that could constrain business models or necessitate structural changes [page:2].
  • Operational, technology, or clearing failures—including cyberattacks—that could halt trading or clearing operations and result in financial and reputational losses [page:1].
Investors should consider these risk factors carefully before making an investment decision.

Who are the main competitors of Intercontinental Exchange?

Intercontinental Exchange competes with several listed peers in its sector. Intercontinental Exchange operates in a concentrated market dominated by a handful of formidable competitors—CME Group, Nasdaq, Cboe, LSEG, S&P Global, and Deutsche Börse—each vying for share across exchanges, data services, and analytics. ICE's integrated model, which bundles trading, clearing, and data into a single offering, creates genuine network effects that make the platform stickier. But that same integration also means ICE faces pressure from specialists: rivals focused purely on trading venues, others on post-trade services, still others on analytics alone. The real vulnerabilities lie in three places. Clearing and regulatory competition could intensify, chipping away at margins. Data and analytics rivals keep pushing on price. And perhaps most importantly, ICE's fee revenue moves with market liquidity and volatility—when markets quiet down, so does the till.
  • CME Group Inc. (CME.NASDAQ)
  • Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ.NASDAQ)
  • S&P Global Inc. (SPGI.NYSE)
  • London Stock Exchange Group plc (LSEG.LSE)
These competitors influence pricing power, growth opportunities and relative valuation.

When does Intercontinental Exchange report earnings?

Intercontinental Exchange's next earnings report date is April 30, 2026.

What is Intercontinental Exchange's average dividend yield?

Across past payouts, Intercontinental Exchange's average dividend yield at payment date has been 0.32%.

Key Metrics

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

Market Capitalization
85.02B USD
P/E Ratio
27.00
Analyst Target Price
198.75 USD

Valuation Metrics

P/S Ratio
8.78
P/B Ratio
3.24

Profitability Metrics

Profit Margin
31.00%
Operating Margin
51.40%
Return on Equity
11.06%
Return on Assets
2.12%

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth
9.80%
Earnings Growth
34.50%

Dividend history

Long-term record of paid dividends (amount per share and dividend yield at the time of payment).

YearDividendYield at paymentAvg. yield
20260.52 USD—0.32%
20260.52 USD—
20260.52 USD—
20260.52 USD0.32%
20250.48 USD0.30%
20250.48 USD0.28%
20250.48 USD0.27%
20250.48 USD0.28%
20240.45 USD0.29%
20240.45 USD0.28%
20240.45 USD0.33%
20240.45 USD0.33%
20230.42 USD0.36%
20230.42 USD0.36%
20230.42 USD0.39%

Earnings history & estimates

Historical earnings performance shows how consistently the company meets or exceeds analyst expectations. Forward estimates provide insight into expected profitability and growth trajectory.

Historical earnings performance

70.7%
Beat estimate
7.3%
Miss estimate
+4.1%
Avg surprise when beat
-19.45%
Avg surprise when miss

Reports analyzed: 82

Upcoming earnings report

April 30, 2026
Next earnings date

Analyst estimates for upcoming periods

Next year
December 31, 2027
Consensus8.58
Range8.13 – 9.08
13 analysts
Est. growth vs prior: 11.2%
Revisions: 7d ↑2 ↓0 · 30d ↑3 ↓0
Next quarter
June 30, 2026
Consensus1.90
Range1.82 – 2.13
12 analysts
Est. growth vs prior: 4.92%
Revisions: 7d ↑1 ↓0 · 30d ↑2 ↓0

Key financial figures

All figures in USD

Selected income statement, balance sheet and cash flow figures. Annual and quarterly, based on reported IFRS/GAAP financials.

20252024202320222021
Revenue12.64B11.76B9.90B9.64B9.17B
Operating income (EBIT)4.90B4.31B3.69B3.64B3.87B
Net income3.30B2.75B2.37B1.45B4.06B
Free cash flow4.29B4.20B3.05B3.07B2.67B
Total assets136.89B139.43B136.08B194.34B193.50B
Equity28.91B27.65B25.72B22.71B22.71B
Net debt19.44B19.86B22.01B16.58B13.56B

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