Leeway Blog - Stock Analysis and Market Commentary

Expert knowledge for successful investments. Articles on technical and fundamental market and stock analysis.

20.02.2026

AI in financial analysis: why "smart" doesn't always mean "right"

Large language models hallucinate more often than you think when it comes to financial data. The problem is that they sound absolutely convincing. How to create AI-supported analyses at a professional level with the right architecture - without falling for expensive mistakes.


26.10.2025

Which artificial intelligence for equity analysis? Comparison of ChatGPT et. al.

ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity - which AI is best suited for equity analysis? The answer: Each has its strengths, but none can do everything. We show which tool is really suitable for which purpose - and why a combination of specialized systems ultimately enables better decisions to be made.


10.03.2025

What does KI say about the exploratory talks?

While the planned 500 billion investment offensive by the CDU, CSU and SPD promises economic impetus in the short term, Germany is in danger of sinking into a debt trap in the long term and missing out on structural reforms. Although the coalition compromise cleverly caters to different groups of voters, it postpones the really difficult decisions to the future - with potentially serious consequences for competitiveness, demographic development and financial stability.


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26.01.2025

Trump 2. 0: What does the return mean for Europe and the markets?

Trump is back - and with him new challenges for Europe and the markets. How do his political decisions influence the transatlantic partnership and what opportunities does this present? Read now how we can benefit from the geopolitical changes!


08.10.2024

Deutsche Telekom: avant-garde Stock Fund - "Investments Explained"

Deutsche Telekom, once a symbol of the TMT bubble and with a share price loss of over 90% after it burst, has transformed itself into a global leader in the telecommunications market. Today, the company generates more profits than all other European competitors combined and ranks 11th in the global ranking of the most valuable brands. On 10. and 11. October 2024 Telekom presents its new goals - an opportunity not to be missed! Is the share an attractive investment?


11.07.2024

Tesla is undervalued

The latest feature of Leeway clearly shows the opportunities at Tesla. In recent months, Tesla's share price has almost doubled at its peak - accompanied by a lack of understanding in the media. The new valuation histories show that the increase was foreseeable.


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03.07.2024

Ferrari: avant-garde Stock Fund - "Investments Explained"

To mark the inauguration of Ferrari's new e-building in Maranello, the managers of our partner, the Frankfurt-based fund boutique avant-garde, take a closer look at the shares of the Italian luxury sports car manufacturer in this edition of "Investments Explained".


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Market Commentary

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Market Commentary

### The Blockade Widens

The most consequential development isn't in the indices. Defense Secretary Hegseth announced late last week that the US naval blockade on Iran is "going global" — targeting vessels of any nationality, anywhere, including the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Monday delivered the diplomatic confirmation: Tehran offered to reopen Ho…
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Market Commentary

### The Powell Story That Reads Like a Footnote

The DOJ closed its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell late last week, referring the matter to the Fed's Inspector General. This sounds procedural. An active prosecutorial threat against a sitting Fed Chair is an extraordinary pressure point on central bank independence — the foundati…
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Market Commentary

### Friday's Session

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed at fresh all-time highs — up 0.8% and nearly 2% respectively. The Dow dipped fractionally, a quiet tell that the rally is narrower than the headlines suggest. Intel beat Q1 expectations and jumped roughly 24% in a single session. AMD gained about 14%. In both cases, AI infrastructure demand ca…
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Market Commentary

The rally and what it's betting on

S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,165, up 12.5% from March lows. Nasdaq 100 outpaced it at +18% for the month. The thesis behind both: the US-Iran ceasefire holds, Hormuz reopens, the energy shock fades. Crude's move tells a less settled story — it touched $80 mid-week before snapping back to $95 by Friday, nearly a …
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Market Commentary

### The Escalation Has a New Category

Wednesday was ship seizures. Thursday, Trump ordered the Navy to fire on any Iranian vessel placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz. A separate operation seized the tanker Majestic X in the Indian Ocean — a previously sanctioned stateless vessel whose legal history matters for how wide the enforcement net spread…
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Market Commentary

The ceasefire everyone needed, on terms no one can verify

Trump's April 22 announcement extending the Iran ceasefire indefinitely was the headline relief. Markets initially welcomed it, but the follow-through is more complicated. WTI crude, which had dipped below $81 mid-month as optimism built, surged back above $95 this week — up nearly 13%. …
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Market Commentary

### The Divergence Is the Story

Nasdaq 100 closed at a new all-time high Wednesday, up 1.7%. The S&P 500 finished just below its own record, up over 1%. The same session, Iran seized two cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz and reportedly disabled a Greek-owned vessel. The STOXX 600 and Euro Stoxx 50 both fell. Two sides of the Atlantic, looking at…
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Market Commentary

### The Ceasefire Buys Time, Then Gets Complicated

Trump extended the Iran ceasefire at Pakistan's request, asking Tehran for a "unified proposal." That was the diplomatic improvement. It lasted hours. US Indo-Pacific Command boarded a stateless, sanctioned tanker — the M/T Tifani — linked to Iran. The Pentagon called it routine. Separately, Hezbo…
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Market Commentary

### What Monday Confirmed

Monday absorbed the weekend. Euro Stoxx 50 dropped 1.2%, STOXX 600 fell 0.8%. The S&P 500 barely moved — down a quarter percent — which reads as either composure or delayed reaction. VIX jumped 8% but stayed below 20. Crude climbed back above $86, retracing most of Friday's relief drop. Friday's all-time highs, priced on …
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Market Commentary

### The Rally That Priced a Press Release

Friday pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 to fresh all-time highs on Iran's Hormuz reopening announcement. Crude collapsed from above $90 to $84. The Dow gained 1.8%, Euro Stoxx 50 surged over 2%. VIX dropped below 17.50. Clean, high-conviction session — if you believed the headline.

Over the weekend, that…
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