Recommended as Stock of the Week on October 31, 2025

Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist

TickerWM.NYSE
Recommended Price199.77 USD
Current Price 199.77 USD
Waste Management Inc – stock chart

Scores at time of recommendation (October 31, 2025)

Leeway Score
69/100
Excellent
Business Rating
80/100
Excellent
Market-Fit Rating
86/100
Excellent
Cycle Rating
42/100
Fair

More about our scores in Help

5-year stock timeline

Waste Management (WM) — five‑year timeline (2020–2026) with key events, shifting investor narrative, and major technical phases; latest price 229.79.

Key events

2020 marked the completion of Advanced Disposal integration with expected synergies realized by year‑end, while the company maintained dividend payments through the COVID period—a signal of operational resilience during uncertainty.

2021 delivered strong organic revenue and earnings growth, with outsized quarterly revenue beats and a raised full‑year outlook as volumes and pricing recovered.

2022–2023 saw the company move past the large Advanced Disposal step into a quieter phase on major deals, then announce a strategic JV followed by guidance signaling a meaningful ramp in tuck‑in M&A spending—a pivot toward scaling recycling and processing assets.

Investor narrative

In 2020, the market viewed WM as a defensive pandemic‑resilient utility: steady cashflow, dividend continuity, and essential‑service status anchored investor confidence.

By 2021, the narrative shifted to an operational compounder. Investors rewarded execution on integration, technology investments, and consistent organic pricing that demonstrated durable margin expansion.

From 2022 onward, the story evolved into disciplined growth paired with select acquisitions—tuck‑ins and sustainability plays—with close attention to ESG/recycling initiatives and how M&A spending would drive incremental growth versus create valuation risk.

Technical phases

2020–2021 saw a notable multi‑quarter rally, with 2021 delivering roughly +47.7% annual outperformance as post‑pandemic recovery and strong results compounded.

2022 produced a muted, flat year amid macro uncertainty and inflation concerns, creating a sideways‑to‑down corrective phase as investors repriced cyclicality.

2023–2025 brought a recovery with multi‑year rallies punctuated by episodic volatility around earnings and M&A commentary, with the stock trading in a broad 200–230 range through 2024–2025.

Material drivers

Advanced Disposal integration execution and realized synergies directly impacted guidance and investor confidence.

Quarterly earnings beats, pricing and volume trends across collection, landfill, and recycling shifted near‑term guidance and sentiment in 2021.

The shift toward higher M&A cadence and strategic activity around recycling and processing changed growth expectations beginning 2022.

Watch‑items

Pace and profitability of tuck‑in M&A and whether deals meaningfully lift growth and margins.

Recycling and commodities dynamics plus pricing power in collection and landfill that will drive future earnings beats or misses.

Key Points

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

  • Record EBITDA margin of 30.6% in Q3 with over 15% growth
  • Free cash flow increased by 33% to 2.11 billion USD in nine months
  • Defensive business structure with essential services
  • Strong market position due to regulatory barriers and infrastructure
  • Integration of Healthcare Solutions expands growth opportunities

Investment Thesis

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

Waste Management embodies the rare ideal of a natural monopoly with defensive characteristics. The company benefits from exceptionally high barriers to market entry due to regulatory hurdles, established infrastructure and the sheer complexity of logistics networks. The latest quarterly figures underline the operational excellence with record margins of 30.6% and free cash flow growth of 33%. The resilience of the business model is particularly impressive: waste disposal remains indispensable even in difficult economic times, which enables stable cash flows and predictable returns. The integration of Healthcare Solutions and continuous investment in recycling technologies are positioning WM for additional growth beyond its traditional core business.

Key risks and downside factors

Waste Management operates in a concentrated North American waste-and-recycling market alongside formidable competitors including Republic Services, Waste Connections, Clean Harbors, and Casella Waste Systems. The company faces a multifaceted risk landscape: environmental and regulatory compliance demands, exposure to recycling commodity price swings, operational constraints tied to landfill capacity, and competitive intensity that can compress margins and force capital allocation decisions.

  • Tightening environmental and landfill emissions regulations are pushing compliance and remediation costs higher [15].
  • Swings in recycling commodity prices and demand can meaningfully erode revenue from recyclable streams.
  • Operational pressures—constrained landfill capacity, rising transport costs, and facility disruptions—could force service interruptions and demand additional capital investment.
  • Competition from large public peers and regional or private haulers exerts pricing pressure that can complicate both organic growth and margin expansion.

Competitive landscape

Waste Management competes in a concentrated North American market for collection, disposal, and recycling services, where large regional operators create significant competitive pressure. The landscape includes formidable publicly traded rivals like Republic Services, Waste Connections, Clean Harbors, and Casella. The business itself demands substantial capital investment and operates under regulatory oversight that directly influences both growth trajectories and profit margins.

CompanyTicker
Republic ServicesRSG.NYSE
Waste ConnectionsWCN.NYSE
Clean HarborsCLH.NYSE
Casella Waste SystemsCWST.NASDAQ

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Catalysts

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

  • Further synergies from the Healthcare Solutions Integration
  • Increasing regulatory requirements for recycling and the circular economy
  • Potential price increases if recycling raw material prices stabilize
  • Additional acquisitions in fragmented regional markets
  • Technology investments to automate and increase efficiency

Analysis

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

With its Q3 results, Waste Management has impressively demonstrated why defensive quality stocks have their place even in volatile markets. The indispensable nature of the services creates a customer base that remains stable even in deep recessions - waste is always generated, regardless of whether there is a boom or a crisis. The exceptionally strong moat caused by regulatory hurdles for new landfills, established customer relationships and the complex logistics infrastructure makes it practically impossible for competitors to seriously attack. Vertical integration from collection to disposal further strengthens these competitive advantages. While sales growth of 14.9% was slightly below analysts' estimates, the record margins show that management is continuously improving operational efficiency.

Performance Figures of Waste Management Inc

in USD

1M High / Low
248.13 / 219.10
52W High / Low
248.13 / 194.11
5Y High / Low
248.13 / 129.70
1M
-5.09%
3M
+5.00%
6M
+5.39%
1Y
-0.22%
3Y
+47.45%
5Y
+92.15%

Relative Performance vs Benchmarks

PeriodWaste Management Inc vs DAX vs S&P 500 (SPY)
1M -5.09% +0.88% -0.10%
3M +5.00% +10.40% +9.37%
6M +5.39% +10.36% +7.66%
1Y -0.22% -3.00% -17.48%
3Y +47.45% -0.78% -17.63%
5Y +92.15% +38.80% +18.33%

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Historical valuation trends

How the company’s key valuation ratios (P/E, P/S, P/B and P/CF) have evolved over time compared to today.

PeriodP/E RatioP/S RatioP/B RatioP/CF Ratio
Current34.33.79.315.4
1Y ago35.04.1446.417.9
3Y ago29.63.39.815.4
5Y ago35.23.57.414.6

Frequently Asked Questions

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

Is Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist a good investment?

Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist has a Leeway Score of 69.3/100, which is rated as Excellent. The Leeway Score combines business quality, fundamental evaluation, and valuation cycle into a comprehensive assessment. A higher score indicates stronger investment quality based on AI-powered fundamental analysis.

What does Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist do?

Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist is a company characterized by the following investment thesis: Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. It also operates materials processing and commodities recycling services, including cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, construction and demolition materials, and other recycling commodities are recovered for resale or redirected for other purposes; markets and resells recycling commodities; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company collects recyclable food and yard waste, as well as markets and sells mulch, compost, soil amendments, and renewable energy; offers remediation and construction, and industrial waste services; and manages and markets fly ash. Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that include the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Houston, Texas. Waste Management Inc operates in the Industrials / Waste Management industry is based in USA employs around 60,500 people. Waste Management Inc recently reported revenue of about 25.20B USD, a profit margin of 10.74%, return on equity of 29.70%, a market capitalisation around 92.75B USD, valuation multiples of roughly 34.4x earnings, 3.7x sales, 9.3x book value. Analyst consensus currently expects earnings per share of around 9.36 USD with year‑over‑year growth of 14.01%. Waste Management Inc has an ongoing dividend policy and pays around 3.30 USD per share (1.47% yield).

What are the key metrics for WM.NYSE?

Key metrics for WM.NYSE include valuation (P/E —, P/S —, P/B —), profitability (profit margin 10.35%, ROE 29.33%), and growth (revenue 14.90%, earnings -20.70%). Market capitalization is — USD. These metrics give an overview of the company's financial performance and valuation.

How has Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist's stock price performed?

Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist's stock has returned — over 1 year, — over 3 years, and — over 5 years. Performance can vary depending on market conditions and company developments.

How is WM.NYSE valued?

WM.NYSE has the following valuation metrics: P/E Ratio: —, P/S Ratio: —, P/B Ratio: —. These metrics help assess whether the stock is fairly valued compared to its fundamentals.

What are the growth catalysts for Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist?

The key growth catalysts for Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist are:
  • Further synergies from the Healthcare Solutions Integration
  • Increasing regulatory requirements for recycling and the circular economy
  • Potential price increases if recycling raw material prices stabilize
  • Additional acquisitions in fragmented regional markets
  • Technology investments to automate and increase efficiency
These factors can positively influence the company's future growth and performance.

What are the key risks when investing in WM.NYSE?

Key risks for WM.NYSE include: Waste Management operates in a concentrated North American waste-and-recycling market alongside formidable competitors including Republic Services, Waste Connections, Clean Harbors, and Casella Waste Systems. The company faces a multifaceted risk landscape: environmental and regulatory compliance demands, exposure to recycling commodity price swings, operational constraints tied to landfill capacity, and competitive intensity that can compress margins and force capital allocation decisions.
  • Tightening environmental and landfill emissions regulations are pushing compliance and remediation costs higher [web:15].
  • Swings in recycling commodity prices and demand can meaningfully erode revenue from recyclable streams.
  • Operational pressures—constrained landfill capacity, rising transport costs, and facility disruptions—could force service interruptions and demand additional capital investment.
  • Competition from large public peers and regional or private haulers exerts pricing pressure that can complicate both organic growth and margin expansion.
Investors should consider these risk factors carefully before making an investment decision.

Who are the main competitors of Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist?

Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist competes with several listed peers in its sector. Waste Management competes in a concentrated North American market for collection, disposal, and recycling services, where large regional operators create significant competitive pressure. The landscape includes formidable publicly traded rivals like Republic Services, Waste Connections, Clean Harbors, and Casella. The business itself demands substantial capital investment and operates under regulatory oversight that directly influences both growth trajectories and profit margins.
  • Republic Services (RSG.NYSE)
  • Waste Connections (WCN.NYSE)
  • Clean Harbors (CLH.NYSE)
  • Casella Waste Systems (CWST.NASDAQ)
These competitors influence pricing power, growth opportunities and relative valuation.

When does Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist report earnings?

Waste Management - The indispensable monopolist's next earnings report date is April 28, 2026.

Key Metrics

From recommendation (October 31, 2025)

Market Capitalization
— USD
P/E Ratio
—
Analyst Target Price
246.64 USD

Valuation Metrics

P/S Ratio
—
P/B Ratio
—

Profitability Metrics

Profit Margin
10.35%
Operating Margin
18.87%
Return on Equity
29.33%
Return on Assets
7.05%

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth
14.90%
Earnings Growth
-20.70%

Dividend history

Long-term record of paid dividends (amount per share and dividend yield at the time of payment).

YearDividendYield at paymentAvg. yield
20260.95 USD0.40%0.39%
20250.83 USD0.39%
20250.83 USD0.37%
20250.83 USD0.35%
20250.83 USD0.37%
20240.75 USD0.33%
20240.75 USD0.36%
20240.75 USD0.37%
20240.75 USD0.36%
20230.70 USD0.41%
20230.70 USD0.45%
20230.70 USD0.43%
20230.70 USD0.47%
20220.65 USD0.39%
20220.65 USD0.37%

Earnings history & estimates

Historical earnings performance shows how consistently the company meets or exceeds analyst expectations. Forward estimates provide insight into expected profitability and growth trajectory.

Historical earnings performance

57%
Beat estimate
33.1%
Miss estimate
+6.44%
Avg surprise when beat
-7.15%
Avg surprise when miss

Reports analyzed: 121

Upcoming earnings report

April 28, 2026
Next earnings date

Analyst estimates for upcoming periods

Next year
December 31, 2027
Consensus9.36
Range8.70 – 10.14
28 analysts
Est. growth vs prior: 14.01%
Revisions: 7d ↑0 ↓0 · 30d ↑0 ↓4
Next quarter
June 30, 2026
Consensus2.03
Range1.90 – 2.35
23 analysts
Est. growth vs prior: 5.89%
Revisions: 7d ↑0 ↓0 · 30d ↑4 ↓10

Key financial figures

All figures in USD

Selected income statement, balance sheet and cash flow figures. Annual and quarterly, based on reported IFRS/GAAP financials.

20252024202320222021
Revenue25.20B22.06B20.43B19.70B17.93B
Operating income (EBIT)4.61B4.15B3.82B3.44B3.01B
Net income2.71B2.75B2.30B2.24B1.82B
Free cash flow2.82B2.16B1.82B1.95B2.43B
Total assets45.84B44.57B32.82B31.37B29.10B
Equity9.99B8.25B6.90B6.85B7.12B
Net debt22.71B23.49B15.77B14.63B13.29B

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