Recommended as Stock of the Week on May 25, 2026

Salmon Farmer on the Fjord: When the Market Sells Quality at a Discount

TickerBAKKA.OL
Recommended Price463.00 NOK
Current Price 463.00 NOK
P/f Bakkafrost – stock chart

Scores at time of recommendation (May 25, 2026)

Leeway Score
60/100
Excellent
Business Rating
60/100
Excellent
Market-Fit Rating
44/100
Fair
Cycle Rating
76/100
Excellent

More about our scores in Help

5-year stock timeline

Sep 2021 — Capital Markets Day / Scotland investment plan

Announced a sustainable growth plan and new profitability strategy backed by a large Scotland investment programme (DKK ~6.2bn) and related value-chain investments. Purchased a farming service vessel (M/S Bakkanes) as part of the Scotland programme [2], [7]. Management pitched Scotland as a multi-year expansion and turnaround opportunity to capture feed and production synergies. Market treated Bakkafrost as a growth compounder, driving positive re-rating and momentum.

FY 2021 (reported late 2021) — Strong financials and dividend proposal

Reported 2021 revenue of ~5,554 mDKK and operational EBIT of ~821 mDKK. Board proposed a dividend of DKK 5.14 per share, highlighted as a turning point after pandemic disruption [5]. Market narrative solidified around an integrated, high-margin salmon producer with resilient margins and strong cash generation. Investor sentiment turned constructive on improving fundamentals.

Jun 2022 — Integration and rebranding of Scottish operations

Scottish Salmon Company operations were progressively integrated and rebranded as Bakkafrost Scotland under the "One Company" strategy [24], [23]. Investors reframed the Scottish business from a separate turnaround to an internal improvement project where Faroese expertise and feed integration could unlock synergies. Market consolidated as it awaited operational evidence.

H1–H2 2023 — Biological issues and revised harvest guidance

Issued a profit warning after unusually low harvest volumes and lower average weights. Scotland biology problems forced harvest adjustments and cutbacks to 2023 guidance [33], [27], [29]. Perception shifted from steady growth to execution and biological risk. Investor concern about volatility from biology and harvest timing increased. Sentiment turned cautious and prices moved lower.

Nov 2023 — Cost pressure and processing headcount reductions

Announced ~140 redundancies in value-added processing in the Faroes, citing a Faroese tax change and margin pressure [50]. This highlighted regulatory and tax tail-risks alongside near-term margin compression. Investors widened their view of operational risks. Momentum remained sideways to negative as fundamental uncertainty persisted.

Late 2023 → early 2024 — Deliberate harvest deferral into 2024

Management deliberately reduced Q4 2023 harvests, leaving fish in the water to achieve higher weights and value in early 2024. Full-year 2023 harvest volumes were materially lower versus prior year [29], [31]. Strategy was reframed as short-term pain for higher realized prices and weights later. Some investors accepted temporary earnings dilution for improved long-term value. Market entered a range and accumulation phase, discounting near-term misses while pricing optionality for higher future realizations.

May–June 2024 — Faroes general strike disrupts harvests

A four-week general strike in the Faroe Islands (mid-May to early June 2024) blocked exports, processing and harvest logistics, materially delaying planned harvests and fishmeal/oil operations [41], [42], [43]. This exogenous shock hit near-term earnings and supply timing, increasing volatility around quarterly results. Price volatility spiked and pulled lower around the operational newsflow.

Late May 2024 — ISA detection at A-19 (Vágur) and accelerated harvests

ISA virus was detected in two pens at farming site A-19 (Vágur). The company executed accelerated early harvests and immediate containment measures, removing ~180k fish and reducing 2024 harvest estimates by ~2–3k tonnes HOG [53], [54], [56], [60]. Biological risk re-entered the market narrative. While management said the incident was contained, investors penalized near-term earnings and raised vigilance on biosecurity and regulatory compliance. A sharp negative reaction followed.

H1–mid-2024 — Biological improvement and partial recovery in Scotland

Following late-2023/early-2024 adjustments and de-risking measures, Bakkafrost reported improved biological performance and a stronger harvest cadence in Scotland (management credited the early-harvest strategy and improved smolt programs) [32], [26], [60]. Market narrative tilted back toward operational recovery. Investors rewarded visible biological improvement, though caution on price cycles remained. A relief rally emerged as risk-reward improved.

Q3–Q4 2024 — Results dented by delayed harvests and weak prices

Q3 2024 earnings were hurt by delayed harvest timing, the May strike, the A-19 early harvest (lower average weights and prices) and softer salmon prices, denting reported EBIT despite higher harvest volumes in some quarters [36], [61], [60]. This reinforced the view that Bakkafrost faces both operational (biology and timing) and cyclical (salmon price) risks. Investors priced a more cautious valuation multiple. Prices tested downside again as the market digested operational and price headwinds.

2025 (through reporting cycle) — Steadying narrative; management points to smolt improvements

Management communicated progress on smolt quality and biological metrics. The 2025 integrated summary highlighted strengthening positions and brand recognition, with reported wins and continued focus on the integrated value chain [18], [6]. Narrative shifted toward a gradual recovery and turnaround theme, with better smolt, continued Scotland improvement, and the benefits of vertical integration re-entering investor models. Fundamental momentum improved and accumulation began.

27 Mar 2026 — Publication of 2025 Integrated Annual Report

Published the 2025 integrated annual report, summarizing 2025 performance and strategic progress and formalising the recovery narrative and ongoing investments [8]. This reinforced that management's mid-term plan was being executed. Some investors began to re-rate the stock on clearer evidence of operational normalisation. Consolidation emerged with a bias toward breakout if markets continue to reward biological and stability improvements.

11 Jul 2026 — Share price level

Latest reported share price: 413.6. At this level the market appears to price a materially improved operational trajectory and the value of an integrated value chain, while still factoring in cyclicality in salmon prices and residual biological and operational risk. This reflects a recovery and re-rating relative to the 2023–2024 drawdowns — price consistent with an accumulation-to-uptrend phase, assuming continued delivery on biological and market-price recovery.

Key Points

From recommendation (May 25, 2026)

  • Stock price NOK 463, P/E 22.5 – with projected EPS growth of around 40% next year (EPS estimate: ~25 DKK), an interesting setup.
  • Revenue growth +11.3%, profit growth +23.8% – operational momentum intact
  • EBIT margin 2025: 12.5% – down from 18.5% (2023), but a turnaround appears to be forming
  • Equity ratio solid at 58.3%, balance sheet structurally sound
  • Fully vertically integrated: from feed production (Havsbrún) through to processing—difficult to replicate
  • Scotland segment growing, Faroe Islands base stable and established
  • Analyst Consensus Price Target: NOK 486 – Market Sees Room to Run

Investment Thesis

From recommendation (May 25, 2026)

Bakkafrost controls the entire salmon production value chain—from feed production to market distribution—a rarity among global salmon producers. This vertical integration delivers structural cost control and quality assurance that competitors simply cannot replicate, especially those without their own feed operations or access to the Faroe Islands' specific geographic advantages. The current NOK 463 price reflects recent margin compression; EBIT margins have contracted from 18.5% in 2023 to 12.5% in 2025, primarily due to startup challenges in Scotland and biological headwinds. Yet EPS estimates show meaningful recovery, jumping from 17.8 to nearly 25—the company is growing through this weakness. If you're betting on structurally rising protein demand, constrained aquaculture capacity globally, and a disciplined operator with genuine competitive moats, the setup here warrants attention.

Key risks and downside factors

P/F Bakkafrost (BAKKA.OL, ISIN FO0000000179) is a vertically integrated Atlantic salmon producer with farming, processing, and feed/fishmeal operations across the Faroe Islands and Scotland. It competes against large integrated Norwegian and international producers—Mowi, SalMar, Lerøy, and Grieg—as well as regional and global players including Tassal and significant private groups like Cooke, AquaChile, and Cermaq. The company faces exposure to typical salmon-industry risks: disease and parasite outbreaks, regulatory and environmental constraints, volatility in salmon prices and input costs, and pressure from larger, lower-cost competitors.

  • Disease and parasite outbreaks—sea lice and infectious salmon anemia among them—have driven high mortality rates, forced mandatory fallowing and culling operations, and compressed harvest volumes.
  • Salmon-price volatility combined with rising input costs—feed, fishmeal, energy, and freight—compress margins and amplify earnings variability.
  • Regulatory and environmental pressures in the Faroe Islands and Scotland—site closures, production caps, stricter licensing requirements, and tighter discharge standards—carry real weight. Export markets are tightening too. The math is straightforward: compliance costs rise, output gets constrained, margins compress.
  • Larger integrated producers and scale players—Mowi, SalMar, Lerøy, and major private groups—apply competitive pressure and drive consolidation, eroding pricing power and market share.

Competitive landscape

Bakkafrost operates in Atlantic salmon farming against a backdrop of larger, listed Norwegian competitors—Mowi ASA, SalMar ASA, Grieg Seafood ASA and Lerøy Seafood Group ASA among them—that command greater scale and are actively reshaping the industry through consolidation. The company's performance hinges on biological and operational variables: disease outbreaks, sea lice infestations, salmon spot prices and the volatility of feed and input costs. Regulatory tightening and environmental pressures compound the challenge, while industry consolidation (Mowi's acquisition of Nova Sea being one example) raises compliance burdens and squeezes margins through intensifying price competition and constrained growth pathways.

CompanyTicker
Mowi ASAMOWI.OL
SalMar ASASALM.OL
Grieg Seafood ASAGSF.OL
Lerøy Seafood Group ASALSG.OL

Private competitors

  • Nova Sea AS

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Catalysts

From recommendation (May 25, 2026)

  • Q Results with Indications of Margin Recovery in the Scotland Segment
  • Improvement in biological performance metrics (mortality rates, growth coefficients) across both regions
  • I need the text to translate. You've provided instructions and what appears to be a headline in German, but no body text to translate. The headline translates to: "Global salmon prices rise amid demand surge or supply constraints among competitors" If you have additional content to translate, please share it and I'll handle it according to your specifications.
  • Capacity Expansion in the Faroe Islands with Positive Guidance Adjustment
  • Regulatory or tax clarity in Norway/Scotland reducing valuation uncertainty

Analysis

From recommendation (May 25, 2026)

Bakkafrost is riding a structural tailwind that's unlikely to reverse. Global appetite for sustainably produced, high-quality protein keeps climbing while available fishing grounds remain finite. The vertical integration—in-house feed production, optimized farming conditions on the Faroes, owned processing—isn't marketing language. It's operational reality that shows up in stable margins and quality premiums. That said, clarity matters: EBIT margins have compressed from 18.5% to 12.5% over three years, and the Scottish segment has wrestled with biological setbacks that have meaningfully weighed on the group. Geographic concentration on the Faroes and Scotland creates exposure—when local environmental stress or disease outbreaks occur, they hit hard. It's happened. Climate change and rising water temperatures are genuine longer-term uncertainties that could reshape farming viability. On the other side, Faroese production is rebounding with higher volumes, the feed business is growing, and biological performance is improving. EPS estimates are moving accordingly. You're not buying a growth story here. You're buying a quality operator in a structurally sound market at a price that appears to have already absorbed the recent friction.

Performance Figures of P/f Bakkafrost

in NOK

1M High / Low
437.20 / 390.80
52W High / Low
526.00 / 388.00
5Y High / Low
797.00 / 388.00
1M
+0.05%
3M
-11.65%
6M
-12.86%
1Y
-8.84%
3Y
-31.81%
5Y
-39.30%

Relative Performance vs Benchmarks

PeriodP/f Bakkafrost vs DAX vs S&P 500 (SPY)
1M +0.05% -3.49% -2.54%
3M -11.65% -16.96% -23.05%
6M -12.86% -11.53% -22.04%
1Y -8.84% -12.19% -31.24%
3Y -31.81% -88.25% -107.51%
5Y -39.30% -98.05% -124.11%

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Historical valuation trends

How the company’s key valuation ratios (P/E, P/S, P/B and P/CF) have evolved over time compared to today.

PeriodP/E RatioP/S RatioP/B RatioP/CF Ratio
Current19.52.31.56.5
1Y ago74.62.61.63.4
3Y ago56.13.32.419.4
5Y ago32.56.33.447.5

Frequently Asked Questions

From recommendation (May 25, 2026)

Is P/f Bakkafrost a good investment?

P/f Bakkafrost has a Leeway Score of 60/100, which is rated as Excellent. The Leeway Score combines business quality, fundamental evaluation, and valuation cycle into a comprehensive assessment. A higher score indicates stronger investment quality based on AI-powered fundamental analysis.

What does P/f Bakkafrost do?

P/f Bakkafrost is a company characterized by the following investment thesis: P/F Bakkafrost, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of salmon products in North America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through seven segments: Fishmeal, Fish Oil and Fish Feed; Freshwater Faroe Islands; Freshwater Scotland; Farming Faroe Islands; Farming Scotland; Services; and Sales & Other. Its products include fresh and frozen whole salmon, fresh and frozen salmon fillets, fresh skin-packed salmon portions, frozen salmon portions and tails, frozen smoked salmon and salmon fillets, frozen salmon bits and pieces, frozen salmon off-cuts and belly flaps, frozen salmon heads, salmon backbones, and salmon skin. The company is also involved in the production and sale of fishmeal, fish oil, and fish feed; production of eggs from breeding self-owned salmon strains; production of smolts; and on-growing of salmon. In addition, it manages a fleet of farming service vessels; provides fish transportation, treatments, net cleaning, harvesting, freight and logistical, and heavy marine support services; converts organic waste into biogas, heating, electricity, and fertilizers; produces styrofoam boxes; and optimizes the value creation and retention from the harvested fish. P/F Bakkafrost was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Glyvrar, Denmark. P/f Bakkafrost operates in the Consumer Defensive / Farm Products industry is based in Norway employs around 1,816 people. P/f Bakkafrost recently reported revenue of about 7.22B NOK, a profit margin of 11.66%, return on equity of 7.45%, a market capitalisation around 24.49B NOK, valuation multiples of roughly 19.1x earnings, 3.3x sales, 1.4x book value. Analyst consensus currently expects earnings per share of around 25.25 NOK with year‑over‑year growth of 49.51%. P/f Bakkafrost has an ongoing dividend policy and pays around 3.45 NOK per share (0.85% yield).

What are the key metrics for BAKKA.OL?

Key metrics for BAKKA.OL include valuation (P/E 22.5, P/S 2.6, P/B 1.7), profitability (profit margin 11.66%, ROE 7.45%), and growth (revenue 11.30%, earnings 23.80%). Market capitalization is 27.42B NOK. These metrics give an overview of the company's financial performance and valuation.

How has P/f Bakkafrost's stock price performed?

P/f Bakkafrost's stock has returned — over 1 year, — over 3 years, and — over 5 years. Performance can vary depending on market conditions and company developments.

How is BAKKA.OL valued?

BAKKA.OL has the following valuation metrics: P/E Ratio: 22.5, P/S Ratio: 2.6, P/B Ratio: 1.7. These metrics help assess whether the stock is fairly valued compared to its fundamentals.

What are the growth catalysts for P/f Bakkafrost?

The key growth catalysts for P/f Bakkafrost are:
  • Q Results with Indications of Margin Recovery in the Scotland Segment
  • Improvement in biological performance metrics (mortality rates, growth coefficients) across both regions
  • I need the text to translate. You've provided instructions and what appears to be a headline in German, but no body text to translate. The headline translates to: "Global salmon prices rise amid demand surge or supply constraints among competitors" If you have additional content to translate, please share it and I'll handle it according to your specifications.
  • Capacity Expansion in the Faroe Islands with Positive Guidance Adjustment
  • Regulatory or tax clarity in Norway/Scotland reducing valuation uncertainty
These factors can positively influence the company's future growth and performance.

What are the key risks when investing in BAKKA.OL?

Key risks for BAKKA.OL include: P/F Bakkafrost (BAKKA.OL, ISIN FO0000000179) is a vertically integrated Atlantic salmon producer with farming, processing, and feed/fishmeal operations across the Faroe Islands and Scotland. It competes against large integrated Norwegian and international producers—Mowi, SalMar, Lerøy, and Grieg—as well as regional and global players including Tassal and significant private groups like Cooke, AquaChile, and Cermaq. The company faces exposure to typical salmon-industry risks: disease and parasite outbreaks, regulatory and environmental constraints, volatility in salmon prices and input costs, and pressure from larger, lower-cost competitors.
  • Disease and parasite outbreaks—sea lice and infectious salmon anemia among them—have driven high mortality rates, forced mandatory fallowing and culling operations, and compressed harvest volumes.
  • Salmon-price volatility combined with rising input costs—feed, fishmeal, energy, and freight—compress margins and amplify earnings variability.
  • Regulatory and environmental pressures in the Faroe Islands and Scotland—site closures, production caps, stricter licensing requirements, and tighter discharge standards—carry real weight. Export markets are tightening too. The math is straightforward: compliance costs rise, output gets constrained, margins compress.
  • Larger integrated producers and scale players—Mowi, SalMar, Lerøy, and major private groups—apply competitive pressure and drive consolidation, eroding pricing power and market share.
Investors should consider these risk factors carefully before making an investment decision.

Who are the main competitors of P/f Bakkafrost?

P/f Bakkafrost competes with several listed peers in its sector. Bakkafrost operates in Atlantic salmon farming against a backdrop of larger, listed Norwegian competitors—Mowi ASA, SalMar ASA, Grieg Seafood ASA and Lerøy Seafood Group ASA among them—that command greater scale and are actively reshaping the industry through consolidation. The company's performance hinges on biological and operational variables: disease outbreaks, sea lice infestations, salmon spot prices and the volatility of feed and input costs. Regulatory tightening and environmental pressures compound the challenge, while industry consolidation (Mowi's acquisition of Nova Sea being one example) raises compliance burdens and squeezes margins through intensifying price competition and constrained growth pathways.
  • Mowi ASA (MOWI.OL)
  • SalMar ASA (SALM.OL)
  • Grieg Seafood ASA (GSF.OL)
  • Lerøy Seafood Group ASA (LSG.OL)
These competitors influence pricing power, growth opportunities and relative valuation.

When does P/f Bakkafrost report earnings?

P/f Bakkafrost's next earnings report date is August 31, 2026.

Key Metrics

From recommendation (May 25, 2026)

Market Capitalization
27.42B NOK
P/E Ratio
22.51
Analyst Target Price
486.58 NOK

Valuation Metrics

P/S Ratio
2.63
P/B Ratio
1.68

Profitability Metrics

Profit Margin
11.66%
Operating Margin
22.06%
Return on Equity
7.45%
Return on Assets
4.23%

Growth Metrics

Revenue Growth
11.30%
Earnings Growth
23.80%

Dividend history

Long-term record of paid dividends (amount per share and dividend yield at the time of payment).

YearDividendYield at paymentAvg. yield
20265.06 DKK1.60%3.58%
202513.37 DKK4.05%
202413.69 DKK3.20%
202315.63 DKK3.18%
20226.70 DKK1.37%
20214.96 DKK1.02%
201910.63 DKK3.20%
201813.46 DKK3.83%
201710.68 DKK4.80%
201610.37 DKK4.10%
20156.86 DKK4.39%
20144.96 DKK5.53%
20132.04 DKK2.89%
20121.02 DKK2.74%
20114.09 DKK7.84%

Earnings history & estimates

Historical earnings performance shows how consistently the company meets or exceeds analyst expectations. Forward estimates provide insight into expected profitability and growth trajectory.

Historical earnings performance

37.5%
Beat estimate
62.5%
Miss estimate
+63.58%
Avg surprise when beat
-27.28%
Avg surprise when miss

Reports analyzed: 64

Upcoming earnings report

August 31, 2026
Next earnings date

Analyst estimates for upcoming periods

Next year
December 31, 2027
Consensus25.25
Range23.41 – 27.76
7 analysts
Est. growth vs prior: 49.51%
Revisions: 7d ↑1 ↓0 · 30d ↑4 ↓3
Next quarter
September 30, 2026
Consensus3.25
Range1.95 – 4.50
3 analysts
Est. growth vs prior: 0%
Revisions: 7d ↑0 ↓0 · 30d ↑0 ↓1

Key financial figures

All figures in DKK

Selected income statement, balance sheet and cash flow figures. Annual and quarterly, based on reported IFRS/GAAP financials.

20252024202320222021
Revenue7.01B7.33B7.14B7.13B5.55B
Operating income (EBIT)877.82M1.04B1.32B1.83B1.18B
Net income530.17M656.60M955.57M1.35B964.05M
Free cash flow-56.49M1.33B226.07M-33.82M8.87M
Total assets18.95B17.63B17.84B16.88B14.63B
Equity11.04B11.17B10.86B10.39B9.35B
Net debt3.90B3.00B3.53B2.66B2.46B

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