Siemens Aktiengesellschaft

Siemens has evolved from a sprawling conglomerate with energy exposure into a focused industrial-automation and digitalization group, compounding into the mid-€200s over five years through distinct phases: the COVID shock and Energy spin, a macro re-rating cycle, and a structural shift toward quality industrial growth. The stock currently trades around €245 on Xetra, capping a strong multi-year run punctuated by volatility tied to macro and energy concerns.

2019–2020: Late-cycle, COVID shock, Energy spin

Siemens entered 2019 as a mature cyclical industrial—sensitive to global capex and trade tensions, with the story centered on portfolio simplification and margin improvement rather than headline growth. The COVID-19 crash in 2020 hit European industrials hard, sparking sharp drawdowns as investors worried about manufacturing, transport and automation demand. But expectations of eventual recovery and cost discipline contained permanent damage to the equity thesis.

The structural turning point came with the spin-off of Siemens Energy, completed around late September 2020. The separation transferred the bulk of gas, power, turbines and transmission assets into a separately listed entity, framing the parent as a cleaner play on industrial automation, smart infrastructure and digital industries. Investors increasingly saw Siemens as less burdened by volatile, capital-intensive energy operations.

Technically, a violent COVID sell-off gave way to a V-shaped recovery into late 2020 as stimulus, improving PMI data and the Energy spin narrative drove a strong rebound. Post-spin, the stock repriced higher as the market worked out pro-forma earnings power for the "new Siemens," breaking above its pre-pandemic range and establishing a new medium-term uptrend.

2021–2022: Re-rating, then inflation and energy shock

In 2021, Siemens benefited from the global industrial upcycle, strong demand for automation and digital solutions, and perception of a higher-quality, more focused portfolio. The narrative shifted toward "quality industrial compounder" with leverage to electrification, smart infrastructure and software, supporting a valuation re-rating.

By 2022, inflation, rising rates and the European energy crisis created a tougher backdrop. Russia's invasion of Ukraine heightened concern about European industrial demand and cost pressures. The market treated Siemens more as a high-quality cyclical than a pure defensive, leading to phases of de-rating and higher volatility, though Siemens' more resilient digital and infrastructure businesses helped cushion fundamentals.

On the chart, 2021 delivered a strong uptrend off COVID lows, making new multi-year highs, followed by a 2022 phase of choppier trading with notable drawdowns as macro and energy headlines hit Europe. Price action oscillated in a broad sideways-to-down range during the worst of the macro scare, with failed breakout attempts and retests of prior support rather than a straight-line bear market.

2023: Refocusing on digital strength

Through 2023, the investor narrative increasingly centered on structural growth drivers—electrification, rail and industrial software—even while global manufacturing cycles wavered. Siemens reported solid operating performance relative to European industrial peers, with digital and smart infrastructure units often highlighted as growth engines despite pockets of weakness in automation demand.

This supported the idea of Siemens as a "defensive compounder" within cyclicals: not immune to cycles, but with enough structural growth and margin quality to attract long-term capital.

Technically, 2023 featured a transition from the prior choppy range into a more stable uptrend as the stock worked higher out of its 2022 base. Breaks above prior resistance zones held more convincingly, with pullbacks increasingly looking like consolidations within an uptrend rather than renewed breakdowns.

2024: Record results, guidance, and new highs

Fiscal 2024 (year to September 30, 2024) delivered revenue of €75.9 billion and net income of €9.0 billion, underlining strong profitability. Management highlighted robust demand for electrification, transportation and industrial software, while acknowledging that automation remained challenging—investors read this as confirmation of both cyclical headwinds and structural strengths.

Q4 FY 2024 earnings reinforced the strategy and introduced a new value-creation phase from fiscal 2025 onward, helping maintain a positive execution and cash-generation narrative. With energy-related drag largely contained in the separate Siemens Energy entity, the parent continued to trade as a high-quality industrial with attractive exposure to electrification and digitalization.

On the chart, 2024 saw Siemens push to and consolidate near record highs, with the stock trading in the low-to-mid €200s and showing a constructive medium-term uptrend. Pullbacks tended to be bought, with visible breakout phases above prior resistance bands followed by orderly consolidations—consistent with a strong institutional bid.

Late 2024–early 2026: High-quality cyclical at elevated levels

By late 2024 and into fiscal 2025, Siemens emphasized taking the group to the "next level of value creation," supported by ongoing demand for electrification and industrial software and robust new FY25 guidance despite concerns in automation. This reinforced a narrative of Siemens as a quality European industrial with both structural growth and disciplined capital allocation.

Siemens Energy's separate turnaround efforts and mid-term targets to 2028 kept energy-related volatility outside of the parent, which investors generally viewed as validating the original spin-off rationale. Perception of Siemens AG itself remained anchored in digitalization, grid and transport investment, and resilient cash generation, sustaining a "defensive compounder" and "core holding" label among many institutional investors.

Technically, Siemens trades around the mid-€240s on Xetra in February 2026, still near all-time high territory. Over the last twelve to eighteen months, the chart reflects an extended high-level range with repeated tests of the low-to-mid €200s, intermittent corrections, and subsequent recoveries—characteristic of a mature uptrend pausing rather than a completed cycle.