Anthropic’s prospectus cites $518 billion of mostly non-cancellable computing commitments
Author: Leeway AI · Generated automatically, not editorially reviewed
Anthropic’s offering documents show at least $518 billion of computing commitments, about 80 percent of them non-cancellable, Reuters reported. For Google, Amazon and Microsoft that is backlog. The ten-year US yield rose toward its highest level since 2007 even as oil fell, and through a stronger dollar the pressure now reaches emerging markets and the euro. Australia raised its policy rate to 4.60 percent, and France’s risk premium is the highest since 2012.
Why higher US yields now also affect currencies and borrowers in emerging markets.
What long computing commitments mean for Anthropic and the large cloud providers.
Which upcoming US releases could move rate expectations the most.
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What is new today?
Rate pressure reaches the dollar
The yield on ten-year US Treasuries rose on Tuesday to about 5.25 percent, close to the highest level since 2007. Oil did little to cause that move. Brent fell by a good two percent to about $96, in part because Saudi Arabia is again exporting more oil through the East-West pipeline after repairs. Trump again rejected an Iranian proposal on Hormuz, but the rise in yields is increasingly carried by deficits, a heavy supply of bonds and the expectation of further Fed rate increases.
Yesterday the pressure showed up among the weakest corporate borrowers. It has now reached the currency market. Capital is moving into American securities, the dollar is rising, and dollar bonds from emerging markets are falling. Borrowers who owe dollars refinance at a higher cost. For European investors the effect runs in two directions: US holdings gain in euro terms, while energy priced in dollars becomes more expensive. Australia’s central bank raised its policy rate to 4.60 percent, the highest level since 2011.
Lagarde waits, Paris pays
ECB President Lagarde said inflation projections for 2027 and 2028 were higher because of energy prices. She did not see that feeding into wages, so the ECB can wait. The strain is coming from government finances instead. France’s spread over German government bonds is the widest since 2012. After gains for the AfD in state elections, it is also likely to be harder for Chancellor Merz to pass reforms.
Anthropic’s arithmetic
According to Reuters, Anthropic’s offering documents show at least $518 billion of computing commitments over seven to ten years, about 80 percent of them non-cancellable. For Google, Amazon and Microsoft that is backlog. For Anthropic it implies $50 billion to $75 billion of fixed costs a year. One source says OpenAI is approaching $70 billion of annualised revenue, so the demand is there. Non-cancellable contracts still run if a customer pauses training, as OpenAI is doing now. Growth at the cloud companies depends on a few customers whose finances this prospectus describes in more detail. The AI safety agreement that Trump published with leading firms and Nvidia is not legally binding.
On the margin
Netlist is asking the US trade commission to ban imports of memory chips from Micron and of products from Google, Nvidia and Broadcom that use those chips. The patents concern high-bandwidth memory, the scarcest component in AI servers. Such cases usually take more than a year. Google is suing in the EU court against conditions that would give rivals access to Gemini and to search data. The Swiss financial supervisor has found serious failings in risk and money-laundering controls at Julius Baer.
Today
The quarter ends today. In the United States the PCE price index, the third GDP estimate and the ADP employment figures follow. Spain publishes a preliminary inflation reading for September. PCE is likely to carry the most weight, because a higher figure would make a Fed rate increase in October more likely.
Similar historical market conditions
A comparison of the 100 S&P 500 market situations most similar to today, by sentiment, positioning and price behaviour.
Closest dates: 16 December 2021, 14 December 2021 and 14 February 2025.
✅ Average subsequent five-day move: 0.34%
❓ Five days: average drawdown −1.33% and maximum drawdown −4.23%
❗ Today: average drawdown −0.69% and maximum drawdown −3.53%
Historical comparisons from the original issue. They are not a forecast of future performance.
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Market performance
Historical data from the sample issue of 30 September 2026.
| Market | Last | Week | Day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stoxx Europe 600STOXX.INDX · Regular · yesterday, 16:00 UTC | 638.08 | −0.09% | −0.09% |
| S&P 500 futureES.COMM · After hours · today, 03:36 UTC | 7,746.5 | −0.73% | 0% |
| Nasdaq futureNQ.COMM · After hours · today, 03:35 UTC | 30,631.25 | −0.84% | +0.23% |
| Gold futureGC.COMM · Future · today, 03:38 UTC | 4,208.6 | −2.61% | +1.41% |
| Brent futureBZ.COMM · Future · today, 03:35 UTC | 96.38 | −7.61% | −2.38% |
| AT & S Austria Technologie & SystemtechnikATS.VI · Regular · yesterday, 15:35 UTC | 216 | +6.14% | +9.09% |
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Spruengli AG participation certificateLISN.SW · Regular · yesterday, 15:30 UTC | 81,800 | −8.6% | −8.4% |
Strongest and weakest sectors on the day
| Sector | Last | Week | Day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strongest: utilitiesXLU.NYSE · yesterday, 20:26 UTC | 39.71 | +0.51% | +1.17% |
| Weakest: energyXLE.NYSE · yesterday, 20:17 UTC | 61.54 | −0.81% | −0.9% |
Market state · as of 28 September 2026
Constructive
The active signals currently favour a constructive equity stance.
Stance
OverweightChanges since the last briefing
Added: Short-term pullback
View the full signal board and calculation.
Open market timingFurther company reading
The latest important developments for AT & S Austria Technologie & Systemtechnik.
AT&S is expanding heavily for AI substrates with Marvell and AMD
AT&S has signed a long-term agreement with Marvell Technology to expand capacity for advanced IC substrates at Kulim in Malaysia. That confirms Marvell as a further large customer alongside AMD.
The total investment in Kulim is estimated at €1.5 billion to €2.0 billion and is meant to be co-financed by long-term customer commitments.
In the first quarter of 2026/27, currency-adjusted revenue rose 40 percent to €549 million. EBITDA rose 134 percent to €165 million and the operating margin reached 30.1 percent, while EBIT of €73 million was clearly positive again. Net debt to EBITDA improved to 1.9, helped by a €400 million subordinated convertible bond issued in June.
Management confirmed the full-year outlook of 45 to 55 percent currency-adjusted revenue growth and an EBITDA margin of 32 to 37 percent, with planned investment of €1.0 billion to €1.2 billion. In May it also approved a capacity expansion in Chongqing, likewise backed by long-term customer contracts.
Sources and notices
The source list supplied with this issue, and the full legal notices, are at the end of the page. The issue was generated automatically and has not been editorially reviewed.
