Airbus SE

Airbus (AIR.XETRA) has spent the last five years moving from a COVID‑19 collapse and survival narrative to a supply‑constrained aero‑cycle leader trading near historically rich levels, with a latest price of 189.7 as of 22 February 2026. Over this period, sentiment has shifted from deep cyclicality fears to a premium multiple on long‑dated order book visibility and cash‑flow growth.

2020: COVID shock and survival

In early 2020, Airbus entered the year coming off record 2019 deliveries and a strong civil aerospace upcycle, with shares near all‑time highs before the pandemic. When global travel collapsed and airlines deferred or cancelled orders, the stock saw an extreme drawdown, falling by more than half at the worst point as investors priced in a multi‑year demand shock and liquidity risk.

Airbus responded with sharp production cuts on key programs like A320 and A350, cost‑saving measures, and capital preservation. The narrative flipped to a "deep cyclical stress / survival" story, with sentiment highly correlated to COVID case trends, travel restrictions, and vaccine news rather than company‑specific execution.

From a technical angle, 2020 was defined by a violent breakdown from pre‑COVID highs into a capitulation low in March–April, followed by a reflex recovery through the second half of the year as stimulus and vaccine hopes emerged. The stock remained well below pre‑crisis levels and in a wide, volatile range.

2021: Early recovery and order book focus

Through 2021, gradual traffic recovery, vaccine roll‑outs and improving airline balance‑sheet visibility supported a steady rebuild of Airbus's commercial backlog, and deliveries began to trend up from 2020 trough levels. Earnings and cash flow remained depressed versus pre‑COVID, but upside surprises versus conservative expectations and reaffirmed medium‑term production targets drove positive stock reactions around results and guidance updates.

Investor perception shifted to "early recovery / operating leverage" as markets started to discount a normalized cycle beyond 2023. Airbus was seen as structurally stronger than many customers given its diversified order book and duopoly position with Boeing. News around accelerating narrow‑body recovery, relative strength versus Boeing's regulatory and 737 MAX issues, and continued government shareholdings reinforced a view of Airbus as a core way to play reopening and aero capex normalization.

Technically, the stock trended higher for much of the year in a medium‑term uptrend channel, frequently retesting and holding prior resistance zones broken during the rebound from 2020 lows. It ended the year closer to, but still below, former pre‑COVID highs, with volatility elevated but declining compared with 2020.

2022: Supply‑chain constraints and macro headwinds

In 2022, demand visibility improved further as airlines and lessors placed significant new orders, but execution was constrained by supply‑chain disruptions, labour bottlenecks, and inflation in raw materials and components. Airbus adjusted some production ramp‑up targets, especially for the A320 family, and the market focused heavily on whether it could meet ambitious mid‑decade output plans, making guidance changes and commentary on suppliers key price drivers around earnings.

The macro backdrop turned more hostile with the energy shock, rising interest rates and fears of recession in Europe, which intermittently hit all cyclicals including aerospace. Investors debated whether Airbus was transitioning from "reopening winner" to a more "macro‑sensitive cyclical" again. Nonetheless, the depth of the order book and relative resilience of aviation demand meant sentiment never returned to 2020 pessimism and many long‑only and quality‑growth investors stayed engaged.

On the chart, 2022 was characterized by a failed attempt to break sustainably above post‑COVID recovery highs, followed by a broad sideways‑to‑down phase as global rate hikes drove de‑rating across long‑duration assets. Several sharp pullbacks tied to macro scare days and supply‑chain headlines occurred, but with recurring support around prior 2021 consolidation zones, suggesting buyers stepped in on weakness.

2023: Clear aero upcycle and premium narrative

By 2023, civil aviation demand and long‑haul traffic had recovered strongly, and Airbus's delivery numbers, revenue and free cash flow trended more convincingly towards and above pre‑COVID levels, with financial results showing solid year‑on‑year growth. Positive surprises on cash generation, disciplined capex, and reiteration of higher medium‑term production targets, especially in single‑aisle, drove notable rallies around several quarterly reports.

The narrative evolved into "structural aero cycle leader" and "quality compounder within cyclicals," as many investors viewed Airbus as a beneficiary of constrained OEM supply, rising aircraft scarcity, and long‑run fleet renewal and decarbonization needs. Commentary from institutional investors highlighted margin expansion potential and pricing power as key reasons for overweight positions, and valuation multiples expanded toward the higher end of historical ranges.

Technically, 2023 showed a sustained uptrend with higher highs and higher lows, as the stock broke decisively above the prior post‑COVID recovery ceiling and pre‑pandemic levels and then used those zones as support on pullbacks. Periodic consolidations and shallow corrections occurred, but no extended bear phase, consistent with rising investor conviction in the aero upcycle thesis.

2024–early 2026: High‑multiple leader, execution and cycle debates

Through 2024 and into early 2026, Airbus continued to emphasize ramp‑up towards ambitious production targets, especially for the A320 family, while also investing in next‑generation propulsion and sustainability projects. Earnings and guidance updates in this period were interpreted primarily through the lens of execution on ramp‑up, supply‑chain normalization, and durability of demand in the face of higher interest rates and financing costs for airlines and lessors, with better‑than‑feared news generally supporting the share price near elevated levels.

Investor perception in this phase blended "premium aero compounder" with "late‑cycle debate": some saw Airbus as a long‑duration cash‑flow story justifying a rich multiple, while others flagged valuation risk after a multi‑year rerating and strong price gains. As of 22 February 2026, with the stock at 189.7 and up strongly over the last 12 months, market commentary reflects a balance between confidence in the long order book and scrutiny of any sign of slower growth, cost pressure or macro‑driven order deferrals.

Technically over roughly the last two years, the stock has traded in a broad, rising range, with 2024 featuring intermediate consolidations and modest corrections that mostly held above key former breakout levels from 2022–2023. Into late 2025 and early 2026, the price has pushed into new high territory, with pullbacks relatively contained and the chart showing a mature but intact uptrend consistent with a stock priced as a high‑quality aero leader rather than a distressed cyclical.