Allianz SE VNA O.N.

Allianz SE has evolved over the last five years from a post‑COVID recovery shadowed by litigation into a steady, capital‑return‑focused insurance compounder, with the share now near record highs around 379 in February 2026. The journey was driven by strong operating results, resolution of U.S. Structured Alpha litigation, rising rates, and a disciplined strategy to grow earnings and dividends into 2025.

2021: Post‑COVID and Legal Overhang

Allianz carried significant U.S. Structured Alpha fund litigation risk—a persistent weight on the stock even as its insurance and asset management businesses recovered from the pandemic. Meanwhile, it pursued portfolio optimization and European growth, completing the acquisition of Aviva Italia S.p.A. and making insurtech-related moves through Allianz X and CLARK. The share spent much of the year grinding higher from 2020 lows, but litigation headlines and macro scares kept momentum sideways rather than trending.

2022: Litigation Resolution and Rate Tailwind

A turning point arrived when Allianz settled with U.S. authorities and investors over Structured Alpha, removing a major legal overhang and clarifying the capital impact. Higher interest rates that year structurally improved reinvestment yields across life and property & casualty, supporting earnings power—though market volatility and recession fears kept Allianz trading as a value play rather than a growth story. The chart reflected this tension: sharp drawdowns during equity selloffs followed by rebounds as investors recognized the rate benefit to insurers, oscillating in a wide, volatile range.

2023: Earnings Strength and Capital Returns

Group results showed solid operating profit and high return on equity, with valuation metrics—low‑teens P/E, mid‑teens RoE—pointing to an undervalued, high‑quality franchise. This underpinned buy‑the‑dip behavior. Allianz doubled down on shareholder returns through growing dividends and buybacks, reinforcing the perception of a reliable, cash‑generative compounder rather than a cyclical trade. The share transitioned into a more constructive uptrend: supports held higher, rallies on quarterly results pushed ALV toward previous highs, and corrections remained brief.

2024: Record Results and Strategy Reset

Allianz reported record or near‑record financial results, with strong operating profit across segments and robust customer metrics. Management set an operating profit target of €16 billion for 2025 (±€1 billion), signaling confidence in medium‑term earnings growth. At its Capital Markets Day, the company presented a renewed strategy focused on disciplined growth, efficiency, and capital allocation, including expanded partnerships in Africa and other regions. The chart showed a clear bullish phase: ALV broke above multi‑year resistance, rallies followed earnings beats, and shallow pullbacks found support at previous breakout zones.

2025–Early 2026: Highs, Deals, and Consolidation

Allianz maintained strong operating performance through 2025, with quarterly results generally meeting or modestly beating forecasts, supporting continued dividend growth and buyback capacity. Strategically, a consortium including Allianz completed the acquisition of Viridium, a major life run‑off platform, while the company expanded partnerships in Africa and Asia, deepening its position as a capital‑efficient, scaled operator. Investor perception increasingly framed ALV as an undervalued, high‑yield, defensive compounder benefiting from higher rates and disciplined capital returns. From a technical standpoint, the stock extended its multi‑year uptrend into late 2025, then moved into a higher‑level consolidation around the upper 300s, with intermittent pullbacks and recoveries, culminating in a price around 379 in February 2026 that keeps ALV near its high‑zone after a strong five‑year run.