Commerzbank AG

Commerzbank's share price has moved from a distressed restructuring story trading in single digits to a higher-multiple, capital-return-focused lender, closing at €34.49 on 21 February 2026. Public perception shifted from "perennial restructuring/value trap" to an accepted German banking turnaround with improving profitability and dividends.

2019–early 2020: Deep restructuring, low expectations

Around 2019, the stock traded near multi-year lows around €4–5, reflecting chronic profitability issues, negative rates across Europe, and heavy restructuring costs. Investors viewed the name as a classic value trap rather than a growth story, dominated by concerns over weak returns on equity, German retail overcapacity, and recurring capital-raising fears. The chart showed a long base in low single digits with only brief rallies on cost-cut headlines, repeatedly failing to develop into sustained uptrends.

2020–2021: COVID shock, new strategy & CEO Orlopp

The COVID-19 crisis added pressure through credit-risk fears and collapsing rates, but large policy support and low starting valuations limited permanent damage versus more premium banks. Management launched a deeper "shrink to strength" strategy, exiting non-core assets, cutting headcount and branches, and focusing on German retail and corporate clients—gradually improving confidence but keeping the narrative firmly in turnaround territory. Price action showed a COVID crash followed by recovery into a broad €4–8 band, with repeated failures at the upper end as each rally met analyst downgrades and cautious guidance.

2022–2023: Rising rates, earnings inflection, re-rating

As ECB policy moved rates sharply higher from 2022, Commerzbank's net interest income and earnings inflected positively, with results and guidance beats leading to upgrades from houses like Société Générale, DZ Bank, and BNP Paribas Exane. The stock's narrative evolved from "maybe still a value trap" to a credible earnings and capital return story, reflected in consensus shifts toward constructive Buy/Outperform stances. Technically, the shares broke out above the long-standing single-digit range and began a strong uptrend, with 1-year gains above 100% at points and 3-year performance over +120%, confirming a structural re-rating.

2024–2025: Strategy upgrade, capital markets day, high-beta uptrend

Commerzbank presented a strategy upgrade around the 2024 results and capital markets days, emphasizing higher returns, disciplined costs, and improved capital distribution through dividends and buybacks, reinforcing the perception of a now-sustainable turnaround. Analyst and fund sentiment stayed supportive through 2024–2025, framing the stock as a higher-beta play on European rate and credit cycles rather than a distressed lender. On the chart, 2024–2025 featured a stair-step uptrend punctuated by sharp pullbacks, but 1-year price performance above +120% and momentum scores in the 60s showed strong trend persistence with corrections being bought.

Late 2025–Feb 2026: From re-rating to priced-in

By late 2025, the stock traded in the low-to-mid 30s with a 5-year range of roughly €4.7 to €38.4, indicating a move from distressed valuation to near-cycle highs. Consensus settled around Hold with an average 12-month target a few percent above spot and dividend yields rising into the low-to-mid single digits, framing the story as a reasonably valued, cyclical German bank rather than a deep discount special situation. Over the last year, the stock has oscillated between the low 30s and high 30s, with repeated tests of the €37–38 area failing, turning the pattern into a broad sideways consolidation after a powerful multi-year uptrend.