Deutsche Post AG

Deutsche Post (DHL Group) has spent the last five years cycling from COVID-driven boom, to normalization and macro fears, and back to being priced as a steady, high‑cash‑flow logistics compounder around 49.95. Over this period, the narrative shifted from cyclical risk to structural e‑commerce and parcel infrastructure play, supported by resilient earnings and a stable dividend profile.

2019–early 2020: Pre‑COVID baseline

In 2019, DHL operated in a relatively steady macro environment, with group revenue around €63.3 bn and EBIT about €4.1 bn, framing it as a mature logistics and parcel incumbent rather than a high‑growth story. Investor perception was that of a solid but cyclical industrial, sensitive to global trade and German/European manufacturing cycles.

On the chart, the stock traded in the high‑20s to low‑30s EUR for much of 2019, moving sideways with a modest uptrend bias as earnings remained stable and dividends increased gradually. Volatility picked up into early 2020 as investors began pricing in emerging pandemic risks, but before the full COVID shock arrived.

2020–2021: COVID shock then e‑commerce boom

In early 2020, the stock sold off sharply with the broader market crash as global trade, air freight, and business activity were disrupted. Operationally, however, parcel and e‑commerce volumes surged, and by year‑end the group showed strong revenue growth to about €67 bn and EPS around €2.36, surprising to the upside.

By 2021, revenue jumped to roughly €82 bn and EPS to about €4.01, with management emphasizing structural growth in e‑commerce logistics and express. This fueled a "COVID winner" and "logistics infrastructure backbone" narrative among investors. Technically, the stock embarked on a powerful uptrend from the 2020 lows into 2021, breaking prior all‑time highs and trading materially above its pre‑COVID range, with only shallow pullbacks as investors chased momentum and dividend upgrades.

2022: Peak cycle concerns and normalization

In 2022, DHL's revenue continued climbing to roughly €94–95 bn and EPS reached about €4.33, but management and the market began discussing normalization after the extraordinary COVID years. Investor perception shifted from "pure growth winner" to "peak‑cycle earnings risk," as freight rates, parcel growth, and global trade volumes faced tougher comparisons while macro worries about inflation and recession intensified.

On the chart, after the 2021 highs, the stock rolled over into a pronounced downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows as multiples compressed and investors discounted mean‑reverting earnings. The period featured several failed attempts to reclaim prior highs, turning former support levels into resistance and reinforcing a narrative of de‑rating rather than structural damage.

2023–2024: Earnings resilience, "defensive compounder"

For 2023, revenue eased back to around €81.8–82.3 bn and EPS to about €3.04, confirming earnings normalization but still well above pre‑pandemic levels, while DHL met its annual targets in a weak global environment. This helped reposition the stock in investors' minds as a "cash‑generative, dividend‑paying logistics platform" rather than a fading COVID trade, supported by a consistent €1.85 per‑share dividend.

In 2024, group revenue grew about 3% to roughly €84.2 bn, with EBIT near €5.9 bn, clearly above 2019 despite macro headwinds and underscoring structural profit improvement. The market increasingly framed DHL as a defensive compounder leveraged to global trade and e‑commerce with disciplined capital allocation, especially as results came in broadly in line with or slightly above forecasts.

Technically, 2023–2024 featured a broad sideways range after the 2022 sell‑off: rebounds from oversold levels repeatedly stalled below the old 2021 peak, but the stock found consistent support on pullbacks as investors bought the dip for yield and stability. Dividends around €1.85 per share acted as anchors, with ex‑dividend drops followed by gradual recoveries inside that medium‑term range.

2025–Feb 2026: Consolidation and current narrative

By 2025, consensus forecasts and reported numbers showed revenue in the mid‑80 bn EUR range, EBIT around €5.9–6.0 bn, and EPS close to the high‑2s to low‑3s, indicating stable, high‑quality earnings with limited reliance on unusual items. The investment narrative evolved into a balanced view: DHL seen as a steady, global logistics operator offering moderate growth, robust free cash flow (around €3 bn in 2024 excluding M&A), and dependable dividends, rather than a deep value trap or speculative growth story.

On the technical side, five‑year performance into late 2025 showed the stock roughly flat to slightly negative versus five years prior, despite much higher earnings, highlighting how the market had already priced in good news during the COVID boom and then de‑rated the name. The chart shows a long consolidation band with rallies towards prior resistance followed by pullbacks, but with a gradually rising floor as fundamentals stayed solid and investor confidence improved.

As of February 2026, the share price trades at 49.95, consistent with the stock having recovered from earlier de‑rating and now reflecting a market view of DHL as a reasonably valued, dividend‑supported logistics leader positioned between cyclical and defensive characteristics. Investor perception is that of a stable, high‑quality operator where future returns will likely be driven by incremental volume growth, operational efficiency, disciplined capital returns, and selective M&A, rather than outsized re‑rating or crisis‑driven volatility.