Daimler Truck Holding AG

Daimler Truck's stock has shifted from a new spin-off "value / self-help" story to a profitable cyclical industrial that recently priced in record results and a solid outlook, now trading around the mid-€40s per share.

2021–2022: Spin-off and early execution

In October 2021, Daimler AG shareholders approved the spin-off of the truck and bus business, enabling the new Daimler Truck Holding AG to operate with full entrepreneurial autonomy. The spin-off completed on 1 December 2021, with trading beginning on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange on 10 December 2021.

Early trading and 2022 were dominated by classic spin-off dynamics, with investors testing the standalone earnings power and capital-allocation discipline after separation from Mercedes-Benz Group. The narrative centered on cyclical restructuring and margin improvement, with debate over how much upside remained in the price.

Technically, the stock spent its first year establishing an initial range as the market discovered appropriate valuation. Several swings were driven by macro shocks—inflation, energy crisis, the war in Ukraine—that disproportionately affected European cyclicals. The chart character in 2022 was choppy sideways-to-down, with rallies on positive cost and pricing commentary often sold into as recession fears rose.

2023: Margin proof and record year

In 2023, Daimler Truck increased revenue to €55.9 billion (from €50.9 billion in 2022) and lifted adjusted EBIT by 39% to a record €5.489 billion, with the industrial business reaching a 9.9% adjusted return on sales. Free cash flow of the industrial business rose 61% to €2.811 billion and earnings per share jumped to €4.62, demonstrating strong pricing power and cost control despite supply bottlenecks.

Delivering these record results shifted the narrative from "can they fix margins?" to a self-help compounder in a truck upcycle, with investors rewarding execution and improved cash generation. The higher proposed dividend (€1.90 per share for 2023 vs €1.30 for 2022) reinforced a perception of improving shareholder friendliness and balance between growth, investment in zero-emission technologies, and cash returns.

On the chart, 2023 was characterized by a firm uptrend as earnings beats and raised profitability metrics triggered breakouts above prior post-listing highs and converted earlier resistance zones into support. Pullbacks tied to worries about normalizing truck demand or macro data tended to be bought, with price action exhibiting higher highs and higher lows consistent with a strong cyclical rally.

2024: Normalization concerns vs robust outlook

For 2024, management guided for revenue and adjusted EBIT roughly in line with the strong 2023 levels, with an adjusted industrial return on sales corridor of 9.0–10.5%, signaling confidence despite "normalized" order intake after the prior boom. Incoming orders in 2023 had already declined 18% from the high prior-year level, which fed into market debates in 2024 about how durable the earnings peak would be as core markets normalized.

The story evolved into a quality cyclical with peak-cycle risk: investors weighed high current margins and cash generation against the possibility that truck demand and pricing would revert, impacting mid-term EPS. Valuation services framed the stock as modestly overvalued versus intrinsic value estimates in the high-€30s, which reinforced a narrative that a lot of the operational improvement had already been priced in.

Technically, 2024 showed a transition from a persistent uptrend to a broader sideways range, as the stock consolidated prior gains and repeatedly tested upper resistance near cyclical highs. There were sharp but contained drawdowns around macro or order-book headlines, followed by rebounds when results reaffirmed that profitability remained near record levels, creating a trading range with well-defined support and resistance.

2025–early 2026: Valuation debate and mature cycle

By late 2025, Daimler Truck's market capitalization sat in the tens of billions of euros, with forward P/E expectations in the high single to low double digits on 2025–2026 earnings, typical for a mature industrial with cyclical exposure. External valuation analyses around early 2026 suggested a base-case intrinsic value below the then-prevailing market price, highlighting an overvaluation of roughly mid-single digits percentage versus spot.

The narrative in this phase leaned toward a disciplined industrial compounder with cyclical risk, where investors debated how much upside remained from further efficiency and technology moves (including zero-emission trucks and services) against the risk of a volume slowdown. With the company already close to its 2025 margin ambition, attention increasingly shifted from "can they reach targets?" to the sustainability of high returns and the balance between reinvestment, shareholder payouts, and resilience through the next downcycle.

On the chart over roughly the last year into February 2026, price action reflected a mature bull move: extended but not collapsing, with rallies struggling to accelerate but dips finding buyers near established support zones. Overall, the last five years map as: an initial volatile listing phase, a strong 2023 uptrend on record results, a 2024 consolidation range as the cycle normalized, and a recent stretch marked by valuation-sensitive, range-bound trading around the low-to-mid-€40s.