Siemens Energy AG

Siemens Energy has traveled a striking arc over five years—from a freshly spun energy-transition play to a deeply troubled wind turbine saga, a government rescue, and now a powerful recovery. At 165.25, it's near the top of its range, a journey driven almost entirely by Siemens Gamesa's mounting losses colliding with genuinely strong grid and gas businesses, punctuated by a late-2023 lifeline and the slow return of risk appetite.

2020–2021: Spin-off and early positioning

Siemens Energy arrived in 2020 as a focused energy technology group—gas services, grid technologies, industrial decarbonization, and a controlling stake in wind-turbine maker Siemens Gamesa. The market framed it as a structural energy-transition play with mixed credentials: solid conventional businesses, but a volatile, competitive wind unit exposed to long-cycle project risk.

The stock wandered wide in those early years as investors tried to price the portfolio. It ranged from single digits up toward 167.9 EUR, establishing durable support near 6–7 EUR and a distant resistance band in the mid-160s that wouldn't matter again for years.

2022: Full Gamesa takeover, from optimism to concern

In 2022, Siemens Energy acquired nearly all remaining Gamesa shares at a price shareholders would later call "completely overpriced"—a judgment that sharpened once losses exploded. The narrative shifted from "clean energy beneficiary" to "complex integration and execution story" as wind competition intensified and quality and cost issues surfaced at Gamesa.

The stock deteriorated. Rallies around deal announcements and renewable optimism faded into lower highs. The chart tilted into a medium-term downtrend as the market priced in higher risk and thinner margins from the expanded wind exposure.

2023: Profit warnings, massive losses, and rescue

In January 2023, Siemens Energy cut profit guidance. Faulty components, warranty and maintenance costs at Gamesa's onshore fleet, and offshore ramp-up issues drove a much wider expected net loss for the year.

Across the rest of the group—gas services, grid technologies, industrial transformation—roughly 70% of revenue exceeded guidance with solid margins. But Gamesa's quality problems and cost inflation generated a multi-billion-euro net loss and pushed wind break-even out to fiscal 2026.

By late 2023, spiraling wind losses and a stretched balance sheet forced talks with the German government and banks. In November, Siemens Energy secured roughly €15 billion in support, including €7.5 billion in state guarantees for project and warranty bonds—a recognition of its systemic importance for Germany's energy transition.

The narrative flipped decisively to "distressed turnaround with government backstop." Equity investors focused on solvency, project risks, and whether strong conventional businesses could offset wind losses. Criticism of the Gamesa deal intensified at the annual meeting.

The chart told a brutal story: a steep downtrend with massive drawdowns as profit warnings hit, driving the stock toward multi-year lows near 6.4 EUR. Then came a sharp relief rally into and after the November state-guarantee announcement—default risk eased, shorts covered, and a significant bounce came off the lows.

2024: Operational stabilization and narrative repair

Into 2024, gas, grid, and industrial transformation continued to benefit from strong demand and a swelling order book, underpinning the logic of state support and gradually shifting focus from survival to execution.

Management emphasized tighter risk controls on new wind contracts, a multi-year fix for Gamesa's quality issues, and a path toward wind break-even by fiscal 2026—a "multi-year restructuring" narrative instead of outright crisis.

Technically, 2024 looked like base-building and early uptrend. After the 2023 capitulation low, the stock carved out a rising pattern of higher lows and higher highs, working back from distressed levels toward mid-double digits. Prior breakdown zones turned into resistance, then were reclaimed. Volatility remained elevated around earnings and wind news, but the balance of moves began to skew upside as solvency fears faded.

2025–February 2026: Strong recovery and high-beta transition

By 2025, Siemens Energy had fulfilled key commitments and even raised some mid-term targets, reflecting sustained strength in conventional businesses and gradual containment of wind risk. The company progressed toward replacing state guarantees with private bank facilities.

Discussion shifted to how quickly wind losses could normalize and whether the company could transition from "rescued problem child" to a balanced energy-transition platform. Sentiment moved closer to high-beta "levered turnaround on structural grid and gas demand."

Over the last year into February 2026, the stock staged an exceptional rally from a 1-year low of 41.81 EUR to as high as 167.9 EUR, re-testing long-term resistance. At 165.25 on 22 February 2026, it sits just below its 1-year and 5-year high—the culmination of a powerful uptrend marked by successive breakouts, shallow pullbacks, and momentum consistent with a strong, high-beta recovery phase.