Henkel AG & Co. KGaA vz. (Pref Shares)

Henkel's preferred shares on Xetra (HEN3) have traced an arc from COVID shock through a multi-year "value trap/turnaround" phase into a more constructive rerating through the mid-2020s. The stock now sits in the mid-double-digit euro range—consistent with a defensive, moderately valued consumer and industrial name. Over five years, the narrative shifted from margin pressure and portfolio drag toward a clearer "Purposeful Growth" turnaround, with improving growth and profitability in Adhesive Technologies and Consumer Brands.

2020–2021: COVID shock and early turnaround talk

In 2020, the pandemic hit industrial and automotive demand, weighing on Adhesive Technologies volumes, while consumer businesses provided some resilience despite pricing and competitive pressure. The stock sold off sharply in early 2020 alongside global markets, then recovered with stimulus and vaccine hopes—but remained below its 2017 peak. Investors saw it more as a low-growth, quality "bond proxy" than a growth story.

By 2021, management emphasized a strategic refocus on innovation, sustainability and digital, framing an emerging turnaround toward mid-to-high single-digit EPS growth and better capital allocation. Sell-side and specialist investors increasingly described Henkel as an "under-earning quality" name where a successful turnaround could unlock value, though sentiment stayed cautious as margins and organic growth still lagged best-in-class peers.

The chart showed a V-shaped rebound from COVID lows into late 2020, followed by a broad sideways range as earnings normalized but structural concerns capped upside. Multiple failed attempts to break above pre-COVID resistance reinforced the perception of Henkel as a range-bound defensive at that stage.

2022: Inflation, input-cost shock and de-rating

Surging raw material and energy costs hit margins, especially in European manufacturing, forcing significant price increases across both Adhesive Technologies and consumer brands. Investors worried about margin compression, competitive pushback to price hikes, and Henkel's European exposure, leading to a visible valuation de-rating.

The equity narrative shifted toward "value trap" risk: a solid franchise facing structural headwinds in some consumer categories and intense input-cost pressure, with limited visibility on margin normalization. Guidance turned cautious, and price/mix versus volume dynamics became the key focus on earnings days, with negative surprises or weak volume trends driving downside swings.

On the chart, 2022 featured a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows as macro shocks and cost pressures weighed on European cyclicals and consumer names. Henkel underperformed during energy-price stress and recession fears in Europe, with earnings rallies often fading on outlook concerns.

2023: Portfolio simplification and "Purposeful Growth" execution

Management accelerated its "Purposeful Growth Agenda," integrating Laundry & Home Care and Beauty Care into a new Consumer Brands unit, streamlining SKUs, and focusing on higher-margin, higher-growth products. This reorganization aimed to structurally improve scale and profitability in consumer, while Adhesive Technologies continued to lean on innovation and sustainability to defend leading positions.

As execution became more visible, the narrative evolved from pure "value trap" to an early-stage "self-help/turnaround" story, though many investors still viewed Henkel as a discount defensive versus other global consumer and specialty chemical peers. Equity story materials highlighted ambitions for profitable growth, improved margins and disciplined capital allocation.

The stock began to stabilize, carving out a broad base after the prior downtrend, with volatility clustering around earnings and macro data points. Break attempts above the base signaled incremental optimism on restructuring and pricing power, but the chart still showed a heavy supply zone near prior resistance levels as investors waited for proof of sustained EPS growth.

2024: Results inflection and better sentiment

Henkel reported very good 2024 annual results, with stronger organic sales growth and marked improvement in EBIT margin, reflecting successful pricing, mix, and cost measures. Management pointed to progress on the Purposeful Growth Agenda across both divisions, emphasizing improved competitiveness and resilience despite a challenging macro backdrop.

Investor perception shifted toward a more credible turnaround: Henkel was seen less as a stagnant value trap and more as a disciplined, defensive compounder with upside if execution stayed on track. Some commentary highlighted the combination of an uncut dividend track record since IPO and accelerating earnings as supportive for rerating from discounted multiples.

The improving fundamentals and upgraded tone underpinned a medium-term uptrend from the prior base, with higher lows and stronger post-earnings reactions than in earlier years. The stock worked through overhead resistance zones that had capped rallies since 2020, indicating a gradual rerating as the market priced in better growth and margin trajectories.

2025–early 2026: Consolidation after rerating

In 2025, Henkel delivered further organic sales growth acceleration in the first half and strong margin and earnings increases, helped by balanced price and volume contributions across both divisions. There were also periods of disappointment—criticism of weak Q4 growth and cautious 2025 guidance tempered the pace of rerating and reminded investors that the turnaround path would not be linear.

By early 2026, the dominant narrative framed Henkel as a solid, quality European adhesive and consumer brands group that had executed a meaningful internal turnaround, but whose share price still reflected skepticism on the durability of mid-single-digit growth and higher margins. The stock sits in a zone consistent with a moderately valued defensive/turnaround name rather than a high-multiple growth story, with sentiment balanced between income-oriented holders and investors positioning for further operational upside.

After the 2024–early 2025 advance, the chart moved into a consolidation phase with a broad sideways band, as positive fundamental news alternated with guidance and macro worries, producing range-bound price action rather than a straight trend. This range has functioned as a new equilibrium zone: dips on macro scares or cautious guidance tend to find support above prior multi-year lows, while rallies on strong results or improved outlooks meet supply as investors lock in gains after the rerating of the last few years.