Infineon Technologies AG

Infineon's last five years were shaped by the power and automotive chip supercycle, a sharp post-hype reset, and a more selective AI- and EV-driven narrative. The share now sits around the mid-40s in euros. Over this period, the story moved from high-growth "structural winner" to a more cyclical quality compounder as growth normalized and inventories were worked down.

2020–2021: EV and power supercycle

Infineon closed the Cypress Semiconductor acquisition in April 2020, expanding into microcontrollers, connectivity, and automotive and industrial MCUs—a move that strengthened the growth narrative in automotive and IoT. As the pandemic gave way to a semiconductor shortage, especially acute in autos and power management, Infineon benefited from strong pricing and volume. FY 2021 revenue reached about €11.1bn with EPS surging, reinforcing the perception of a core beneficiary of electrification and green energy.

Investor perception in 2020–21 was that Infineon was a high-quality structural winner in power semis and EVs, not merely a cyclical chip name. The stock traded in a strong uptrend into late 2021, making new multi-year highs as investors priced in sustained EV, renewables, and industrial demand alongside Cypress deal synergies.

2022: Peak expectations and volatility

Through 2022, revenue jumped to about €14.2bn as auto and industrial demand remained very strong and pricing stayed firm. Yet investors grew more concerned about cycle risk and rising rates. The company leaned into its position in power semiconductors for EVs, renewables, and data centers, but macro fears and global chip-cycle worries led to sharp swings around quarterly results and outlook updates.

The narrative shifted from pure "hype growth story" toward "structural winner but very cyclical," with more debate about where earnings actually sat versus mid-cycle levels. Technically, the stock put in a topping pattern in late 2021 and early 2022, then entered a wide, volatile range with deep corrections during 2022 bear-market legs but repeated support at prior multi-year breakout zones.

2023: Normalization and inventory concerns

FY 2023 revenue reached about €16.3bn, marking the cyclical peak. EPS growth stayed high but began to decelerate, and investors focused on the risk that auto and industrial customers were over-ordering. Management began talking more explicitly about inventory normalization and more normal capacity utilization, and sentiment cooled as the market anticipated slower growth and potential margin compression.

Perception in 2023 increasingly framed Infineon as a quality cyclical rather than a pure high-flyer—still a key play on decarbonization but with near-term downside if the cycle rolled over. On the chart, the share oscillated in a broad sideways band, with failed breakout attempts on AI and EV enthusiasm followed by pullbacks when macro or cycle data disappointed.

2024: Step-Up program and muted 2025 outlook

For FY 2024 (year to 30 September), revenue declined about 8% year-on-year to €14.96bn, with Q4 revenue at €3.919bn and a strong 21.2% segment margin, reflecting solid execution in a cooling market. Management launched and emphasized the "Step Up" program to improve competitiveness and cost structure, while guiding for a muted FY 2025 with slightly lower revenue, mid-to-high-teens segment margin, and continued high capex (~€2.5bn) to support long-term growth.

The narrative in late 2024 was that Infineon remained a strategic leader in power and automotive semis, but the company was in an inventory- and macro-driven down-cycle with limited short-term growth, making it more of a "defensive compounder" than a momentum name. Technically, the stock had already come off its earlier highs and traded in a corrective to sideways phase, with rallies fading near prior resistance and the market respecting support around the low-40s before drifting toward the current mid-40s area.

2025–early 2026: Working through the down-cycle

Entering FY 2025, guidance called for slightly lower revenue than FY 2024 and margins in the mid-teens, reflecting weak demand outside AI and ongoing inventory digestion in automotive and industrial end-markets. At the same time, Infineon continued to invest heavily in capacity and advanced power and AI-related products, with external analyses highlighting its positioning in power systems and IoT. Consensus still viewed it as a buy-rated, above-average growth semiconductor name despite the muted near term.

Investor perception in 2025 shifted toward a "wait-for-the-upswing" stance: a structural winner in EVs, renewables, and AI-power infrastructure, but temporarily constrained by macro and inventory headwinds, with more focus on timing of the next upturn than on immediate earnings acceleration. Across 2025 into early 2026, the share traded above its 200-day moving average and outperformed global indices on a 6- to 12-month view, reflecting a constructive medium-term trend with periodic pullbacks but a prevailing upward bias.