Rheinmetall AG

Rheinmetall's share price transformed from a pre-Ukraine-war cyclical industrial and defense name into a high-growth European defense bellwether, reaching €1,740 by early 2026 with an exceptionally strong rerating and parabolic uptrend.

2019–2020: Cyclical defense and auto supplier

In 2019–2020, Rheinmetall was primarily viewed as a hybrid auto-supplier and defense group with mid-single-digit billions of euros in sales and modest growth. The 2020 results showed €5.9bn in sales, with COVID pressure on the automotive side offset by resilient defense operations—a narrative of "solid cyclical with a defense angle" rather than a pure-growth story.

The stock traded in broad ranges with COVID-era volatility but no sustained multi-year trend, behaving more like a cyclical industrial name than a momentum defense play.

2021: Early repositioning, still overlooked

Sales dipped slightly to €5.7bn in 2021, while EBIT and net income rose sharply, signaling operating leverage and an improving mix toward defense. Management and analysts began emphasizing defense and technology growth, though the investor narrative remained "underappreciated cyclical re-rating" rather than a high-conviction defense champion.

The chart showed a gradual uptrend from post-COVID lows, punctuated by earnings-related moves but without explosive breakouts, with price largely respecting prior range ceilings before edging higher.

2022: Ukraine war and structural shift

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a structural demand shock for European defense. Germany's €100bn "Zeitenwende" fund placed Rheinmetall at the center of rearmament plans. Sales rose to €6.4bn with strong EBIT and order intake, while earnings events highlighted accelerating defense backlog and visibility, shifting perception to "war beneficiary and strategic national asset."

Technically, 2022 brought a major trend change: a powerful breakout from prior multi-year ranges into a much higher trading zone, with sharp rallies in late February and March followed by further upside on positive defense contract headlines. Pullbacks tended to be bought quickly, establishing a pattern of higher highs and higher lows that set the foundation for the later parabolic move.

2023–2024: Rerating becomes growth compounding

2023 results showed sales of approximately €7.2bn with strong year-on-year growth in EBITDA and EBIT, confirming that the order boom was translating into earnings power. Investors increasingly framed Rheinmetall as a defensive growth compounder leveraged to NATO rearmament, with growing exposure to ammunition, vehicles, and systems for Ukraine and Eastern Europe.

The chart showed a sustained uptrend with periods of consolidation and range-trading, followed by breakouts on large contract wins and strong quarterly numbers. Drawdowns during macro risk-off phases were notable but relatively short-lived, often retracing to prior breakout zones before resuming the uptrend.

2024 interim results revealed sharp acceleration: net sales jumped to €9.75bn for the year with EBITDA and EBIT up more than 50% versus 2023, underlining operating leverage. Strategic moves—including a Ukrainian joint venture, the opening of a maintenance hub in western Ukraine, and expanded cooperation agreements—reinforced Rheinmetall's narrative as a central industrial partner to Ukraine and European defense.

The chart featured multiple strong breakout phases, with rallies following quarterly results showing substantial revenue and EBIT jumps, and the stock repeatedly making new all-time highs. Volatility increased, with sharp upside spikes on news of large contracts and political support for defense spending, balanced by brief but deep corrections that retested prior resistance levels.

2025–early 2026: Hyper-growth leader in parabolic phase

The March 2025 full-year 2024 report highlighted "boom" conditions, with guidance and consensus pointing to continued strong growth—projected sales of approximately €10.1bn in 2025 and €14bn in 2026, with steep EBIT and net income ramps. Public and investor perception had shifted to a high-growth European defense leader experiencing demand "never seen before," with Rheinmetall framed as a core structural winner from rearmament and long-term Ukraine support.

Quarterly figures into 2025 showed step-changes in revenue and profitability, reinforcing a narrative of sustained multi-year growth rather than a short-lived war spike. The stock became a prominent momentum name and flagship European defense play, with sentiment oscillating between enthusiasm for structural growth and concerns about geopolitics, execution, and valuation.

Technically, the 12-month period up to early 2025 recorded approximately 250% growth in share price, with year-to-date returns reaching near 187% at one point—indicative of near-parabolic advance. By February 2026, the price stood at €1,740, reflecting cumulative multiple expansion and earnings growth, with the chart dominated by steep uptrends, brief sharp corrections, and repeated breakouts to successive highs.