Volkswagen AG VZO O.N.

Volkswagen AG (VOW3) has spent the last five years cycling between brief rallies on EV and restructuring hopes and extended drawdowns driven by execution problems, weak margins and industry downturns. As of late February 2026, it trades just above €100 per share—depressed but not distressed. Over this period, the narrative has shifted from "ICE cash-cow funding EV pivot" to a contested value story, with recurring concerns about software, EV competitiveness and capital allocation despite measurable progress on electrification and industrial reorganization.

2021–early 2022: EV pivot optimism and peak

From late 2020 into 2021, Volkswagen was positioned as Europe's most credible Tesla competitor as ID.3/ID.4 and other MEB-based EVs scaled. The stock traded at a premium to historical multiples and near post-Dieselgate highs. Investors were drawn to plans to unlock value via the Porsche IPO, the PowerCo battery initiative and software ambitions at CARIAD. The dominant narrative was an EV-led re-rating away from legacy scandals.

On the chart, the five-year window shows VOW3 well above its 2020 lows, with 2021 marked by a broad uptrend punctuated by sharp spikes around strategy days and strong delivery updates. Technically, this phase resembled a major impulsive rally followed by a volatile topping range, with repeated failures to sustain breakouts—foreshadowing a longer consolidation and eventual downtrend.

Mid-2022–2023: Execution doubts and "value trap" fears

Through 2022, multiple headwinds converged: energy and supply-chain shocks in Europe, inflation squeezing consumers, and raw-material cost pressure on EVs. These weighed heavily on volume OEMs like Volkswagen and pushed investors to question the pace and profitability of the EV transition. Simultaneously, mounting reports of CARIAD's software delays and cost overruns undermined confidence in Volkswagen's software-defined-vehicle strategy. The narrative shifted toward an execution-risk-heavy value trap—where book value and earnings looked cheap but were not trusted.

This period saw a sustained downtrend in the share price, with lower highs and lower lows. Rallies on individual quarters or cost-cut signals were sold into. The stock spent long stretches in wide sideways-to-down ranges, repeatedly testing prior support rather than establishing new highs—consistent with de-rating on both macro and company-specific concerns.

2024: Restructuring, portfolio moves and cautious re-rating attempts

By 2024, management leaned more heavily into restructuring and portfolio optimization, including the role of PowerCo and European battery cell production as a strategic pillar, and pushing toward industrial partnerships and platform sharing across the Brand Group Core (VW, Škoda, SEAT/CUPRA, VW Commercial Vehicles). The market narrative evolved into a turnaround/value realization story: investors debated whether governance changes, tighter capital discipline and clearer EV roadmaps could close the valuation gap to global peers, even as skepticism about software and China competition lingered.

Technically, the chart began to show a bottoming process, with the stock carving out a broad trading range instead of making fresh lows and volume picking up around corporate events. Brief breakouts were often faded, indicating that while some investors positioned for a turnaround, the broader market still treated rallies as opportunities to reduce exposure rather than evidence of sustained new uptrend.

2025: Mixed EV progress, China/software shifts and range-bound trading

In 2025, Volkswagen announced several milestones. PowerCo's Salzgitter gigafactory began European battery cell production with its first unified cells, reinforcing long-term EV component integration. The Group achieved a cumulative 5 million electric drive units produced, underscoring growing EV scale. Volkswagen Group China launched its first locally developed zonal electronic architecture, CEA, enabling a new generation of software-defined vehicles starting with the ID.UNYX 07, co-developed with VCTC, CARIAD China and XPENG—signaling a pragmatic pivot toward local partnerships to address software and China competitiveness.

Despite these strategic positives, commentary around CARIAD's historical losses and delayed programs kept investor sentiment cautious. The stock remained widely viewed as a challenged turnaround/value name rather than a clean growth story. Price-wise, VOW3 oscillated mostly in the high-80s to low-100s region, with sharp but short-lived rallies in July 2025 around corporate news and macro risk-on, followed by pullbacks that kept the pattern range-bound rather than trending.

Late 2025–Feb 2026: Incremental milestones, governance tweaks and subdued optimism

Late 2025 and early 2026 brought further organizational and strategic developments. Volkswagen appointed Ludwig Fazel as new Head of Group Strategy reporting to CEO Oliver Blume, formalized a new cross-brand steering model for the Brand Group Core to streamline product and cost decisions, and expanded data-driven safety and autonomous testing initiatives including the Gen.Urban autonomous research vehicle in Wolfsburg. Additional milestones included ongoing rollout of the Salzgitter battery program, a Europe-wide initiative to use vehicle sensor data to improve driver-assistance systems, and a letter of intent with Qualcomm to supply advanced infotainment and connectivity using Snapdragon Digital Chassis—all reinforcing Volkswagen's image as a scale player working to close software and tech gaps.

Investor perception in early 2026 is that Volkswagen remains a large, cash-generative but complex conglomerate where EV, software and China strategies are improving but still carry execution risk. The narrative stays anchored in discounted incumbent with optionality rather than clear compounder. The stock price trades modestly above the mid-2025 range and around the low-100s per share. The broader five-year chart shows an early-period EV-hype peak, a long de-rating downtrend, a multi-year base in the 80–100 region, and into February 2026, a tentative but still fragile recovery consistent with cautious, valuation-driven buying rather than momentum-driven enthusiasm.