BASF SE

BASF's share price of 48.89 EUR on 22 February 2026 sits at the end of a volatile five-year period shaped by COVID-19, the European energy crisis, and a strategic pivot toward cost discipline and capital efficiency. The narrative has swung from cyclical recovery play to "energy-crisis casualty" and, more recently, to a high-yield value name with cautious turnaround expectations.

2019–early 2020: Late-cycle cyclical, then COVID shock

In 2019, BASF was viewed as a classic cyclical chemicals bellwether, with sales around €59.3bn and operating income exceeding €4bn, though already contending with weaker global industrial demand and trade tensions. The market saw the stock as a mature, dividend-paying cyclical rather than a growth story, with clear sensitivity to global manufacturing and automotive cycles.

Through 2019, the share traded in a broad sideways-to-slightly-down range, reflecting late-cycle concerns and earnings that had fallen from 2017–2018 peaks. When COVID-19 struck in early 2020, it triggered a sharp drawdown as global demand and production collapsed, sending most European cyclicals, including BASF, into a rapid bear phase.

Mid-2020–2021: Reopening recovery, reflation play

By mid-2020 into 2021, BASF benefited from the global industrial rebound and stimulus-driven recovery. Sales climbed from roughly €59.1bn in 2020 to approximately €78.6bn in 2021, while income after tax swung from a loss in 2020 to over €5.5bn in 2021. Investor perception shifted decisively toward a reflation and recovery play, with leverage to chemicals demand, autos, and construction, supported by a solid dividend.

Technically, the stock transitioned from COVID lows into a strong uptrend through 2021, retracing a large portion of pandemic losses as earnings and cash flow recovered. Positive earnings momentum and improved guidance underpinned the rally, with the market focusing on cyclical leverage and normalizing margins.

2022: Energy crisis and deep derating

In 2022, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing European gas crisis hit BASF hard—as one of Germany's largest single gas consumers, the company faced approximately €3.2bn in additional energy costs, with 84% concentrated in Europe. Despite very high reported sales of around €87.3bn, profitability collapsed: income after tax turned negative at roughly €0.6bn loss, and income before tax dropped sharply versus 2021.

Management announced major cost-cut programs and restructuring, including plans to reduce at least €500m in annual costs by 2024 and to scale back energy-intensive production in Germany. The market narrative shifted toward "energy-crisis casualty" and potential value trap: high headline revenues but significant margin and earnings risk tied to European energy prices and policy.

Technically, 2022 featured a pronounced downtrend from early-year levels as the gas crisis escalated, with multiple breakdowns of prior support zones and sharp drawdowns around negative earnings headlines and supply news. High volatility spikes accompanied EU energy-policy announcements and company cost-cut updates, with rallies often fading as investors questioned the sustainability of European operations.

2023–2024: Restructuring, sentiment trough, and value focus

In 2023, BASF's sales fell to about €68.9bn and income after tax dropped to roughly €0.2bn, reflecting weaker volumes, lower chemical prices, and lingering energy cost pressures. Investor sentiment remained cautious, with focus on portfolio complexity, Europe exposure, and whether cost cuts and structural changes would restore acceptable returns.

The company pressed ahead with job cuts and downsizing of energy-intensive German assets, while emphasizing investments in more competitive regions and maintaining a robust dividend. Narratives centered on BASF as a high-yield value name undergoing difficult restructuring rather than a growth story, with intensifying debate over whether the stock represented a "value trap" or a "cheap cyclical with optionality" tied to European normalization.

In 2023 and much of 2024, the chart showed extended sideways-to-down action with rallies stalling near prior resistance levels, consistent with skepticism and limited multiple expansion despite cost-cut progress. Several failed breakout attempts around earnings and outlook updates, as modest guidance and macro uncertainty capped sustained uptrends.

Late 2024–early 2026: Stabilization, cautious turnaround, and current level

By 2024, sales had declined further to about €65.3bn, but operating income improved versus 2023, and income after tax rebounded meaningfully to roughly €1.3bn, signaling stabilization after the worst of the gas-crisis impact. Forward estimates into 2026–2028 point to moderate revenue growth, higher EBIT, and solid free cash flow, with the stock offering an estimated dividend yield around the mid-single digits at current levels.

This supported an evolving narrative toward "cautious turnaround/high-yield value": still exposed to macro and regional risks, but with improving profitability, lower energy shock intensity, and visible cost savings. Analysts' expectations for rising EPS and stable or slightly growing dividends reinforced the perception of BASF as an income-oriented cyclical rather than a growth compounder.

From late 2024 into early 2026, the stock moved out of its deepest lows into a more constructive range, with a series of higher lows and rallies supported by better cash-flow and earnings results, yet still constrained by macro and chemical-cycle concerns. Recent trading around the high-40s EUR, including the 48–49 area in early 2026, reflects this balanced setup: partial re-rating from crisis levels, but no return to pre-crisis valuations, with investors weighing dividend support and gradual recovery against structural European and cyclical risks.