Bayer AG NA

Bayer AG's last five years have been dominated by litigation overhang, strategic restructuring, and a late-stage rerating that leaves the share at 43.68 EUR as of February 2026.

2021–2022: Litigation Overhang And Value Trap

Glyphosate and Roundup lawsuits in the US remained the primary driver of equity sentiment, with repeated adverse verdicts reinforcing concerns that total liability could far exceed earlier settlement estimates. The Monsanto acquisition was widely viewed as a strategic misstep. Large non-cash impairment charges and litigation provisions kept reported net income depressed, feeding a value-trap narrative despite solid contributions from pharma and crop science divisions.

Investor commentary increasingly framed Bayer as a high-risk special situation rather than a traditional blue-chip holding, with many institutions citing event risk around each new US trial.

The stock traded in a broad downtrend, with multi-quarter rallies repeatedly failing to sustain gains as negative court headlines and ongoing write-downs snuffed out recovery attempts. By late 2022, the share price had moved toward the lower end of its multi-year range, approaching 18.38 EUR—the 5-year floor—underscoring deep pessimism.

2023: New CEO, Still No Clear Turn

In mid-2023, Bayer appointed Bill Anderson as Chief Executive Officer, signaling intent to simplify the group, lower leverage, and re-prioritize R&D productivity and capital allocation. Management outlined portfolio and efficiency reviews, but mounting interest costs, continuing litigation, and weak pipeline sentiment kept fundamental estimates and valuation multiples under pressure.

The investor narrative shifted from "legacy Monsanto problem" toward an attempted operational turnaround, though many still categorized the stock as a restructuring value story with unresolved legal tail risk.

On the chart, 2023 was characterized by a grinding decline with failed rallies. Each bounce on restructuring hopes faded as courts and legal headlines reminded the market that Roundup risk remained unresolved. The share price slipped toward multi-year lows, ultimately setting a 5-year trough at 18.38 EUR—a level later cited as the nadir of the litigation-overhang phase.

2024: From Capitulation Lows To Contrarian Interest

By 2024, cumulative legal setbacks, earnings volatility, and leverage concerns had driven Bayer's valuation to a clear discount versus global pharma and ag-chem peers on forward P/E and EV/EBITDA metrics. This attracted contrarian and high-yield investors who saw potential upside if litigation costs normalized and the pipeline delivered modestly.

A large cohort of institutions remained sidelined, arguing that the range of Roundup outcomes was still too wide and that weak macro conditions for crop inputs added cyclical risk.

Technically, 2024 featured a basing phase after the prior collapse: the stock carved out a broad sideways range around the lows, with volatility spikes around earnings and key US trial dates but without breaking decisively lower. Multiple retests of the low-20s area held, proving to be an important support zone from which the subsequent recovery would begin.

2025: Setbacks, Then Relief Rally

During 2025, fresh US court developments again went against Bayer in several Roundup cases, creating renewed downside scares. Simultaneously, commentary highlighted that at prevailing prices the equity offered substantial upside if a manageable global settlement and stabilization in the crop science cycle could be achieved. Sell-side and credit analysis suggested that structuring a definitive settlement could unlock both equity rerating and credit spread tightening.

The share traded in a relatively low-30s to high-20s range through much of mid-2025, with abrupt drops on negative verdicts followed by sharp short-covering rallies. Toward late 2025, as investors began pricing in a more visible path toward resolving glyphosate liabilities, the stock began a strong relief rally off the base, setting the stage for the powerful move visible in subsequent multi-month performance.

Late 2025–Early 2026: Rerating On Litigation Progress

By early 2026, commentary framed Bayer as "almost out of the Roundup litigation woods," reflecting clearer progress on narrowing the legal tail and growing confidence in management's restructuring agenda. Investors increasingly viewed remaining litigation as a finite, financeable issue rather than an existential overhang.

The equity narrative evolved toward a high-beta turnaround and rerating story, with focus shifting from legacy legal risk toward operational leverage in crop science and pharma and implications for future dividends.

Technically, the stock has staged a powerful multi-month uptrend: 3- and 6-month performance of +61.87% and +56.25% respectively, with the price moving from the high-teens and low-20s toward the mid-40s and printing a 1-year high at 49.78 EUR. Within the 5-year window, the share has traded between a low of 18.38 EUR and a high of 67.99 EUR. The recent surge marks a decisive breakout from the prolonged base, repositioning the chart from deep value-trap territory toward a recovering large-cap pharma and agri-chem name at 43.68 EUR.