BASF SE

2021 (FY; reported Feb 25, 2022)

BASF posted a strong rebound for the 2021 business year — sales €78.6bn; EBIT before special items €7.8bn; volumes +11% and prices +25%; proposed dividend €3.40/share [2], [7], [4]. Market treated BASF as a cyclical recovery story — earnings and cash‑flow strength restored investor confidence after 2020 weakness; emphasis on upstream chemicals and pricing power. Uptrend and rally as fundamentals recovered and sentiment improved.

7 Dec 2021

Announced carve‑out of the mobile emissions‑catalysts business into a standalone BASF Automotive Catalysts & Recycling unit and a strategic push into battery materials and recycling with targeted investments of ~€3.5–4.5bn (2022–2030) and multi‑billion‑euro sales targets for 2030 [39], [42]. Strategic pivot signalled — management repositioned BASF away from declining ICE exposure toward e‑mobility and recycling; investors began valuing a bifurcated story (cyclical chemicals + growth battery franchise). Breakout and positive re‑rating potential tied to credibility of the new growth pathway.

Mar–Apr 2022

In reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, BASF froze new business in Russia/Belarus (early March 2022) and announced plans to wind down remaining non‑food activities by early July 2022; Wintershall Dea curtailed new Russian projects and stopped related payments/planning [32], [28], [25]. Investor perception shifted to elevated geopolitical and operational risk; concerns focused on Russian asset exposure and European gas supply vulnerability. Spike in volatility and initial drawdown as markets repriced geopolitical and energy risk.

Oct 2022

Supervisory Board extended Dr. Martin Brudermüller's appointment through the 2024 AGM and appointed Dirk Elvermann as Chief Financial Officer [15]. Leadership continuity but also a focus on financial stewardship during a turbulent period; investors watched for capital‑allocation and impairment responses. Short‑term consolidation and range as markets awaited clarity on Russia and winter energy impacts.

Late 2022 / FY 2022 (recognized in FY reporting)

Wintershall Dea's Russian segment was effectively deconsolidated and BASF booked very large impairments related to Wintershall Dea, Nord Stream 2 and other Russia‑linked assets — the special charge in income from non‑integral shareholdings amounted to ~€6,517m, contributing to negative net income for the year; energy and gas costs also surged materially [27], [29], [31], [36]. The story shifted from cyclical recovery to one dominated by legacy oil‑&‑gas impairments and energy‑cost stress; BASF was seen as bearing sizeable one‑off losses and higher near‑term execution risk — sentiment turned defensive. Steep drawdown and elevated volatility; a material downtrend that punctured prior momentum.

17 Jan 2023

Wintershall Dea announced its full exit from Russia (orderly withdrawal while complying with applicable laws), completing the withdrawal process begun in 2022 [27]. Viewed as de‑risking and closure of the Russia chapter — reduced ongoing political uncertainty but with the earnings damage from 2022 impairments already realized. Volatile relief rally and beginning of a stabilization phase as uncertainty cleared.

2022–2023 (ongoing execution on batteries & carve‑out)

BASF continued to expand cathode active material capacity and battery‑recycling concepts across Europe, Asia and North America and progressed the emissions‑catalyst carve‑out and associated restructuring measures [39], [47], [48]. The longer‑term repositioning narrative (industrial cash engine + growth battery franchise) gained traction; investors increasingly split valuation into a cyclical legacy base and a capital‑intensive growth arm. Multi‑month range and selective rallies on positive execution updates; the trend depended on battery cadence and macro cycles.

Apr 2024

At the 2024 Annual Shareholders' Meeting Markus Kamieth succeeded Martin Brudermüller as Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors [20]. Management transition signalled a potential strategic reset and fresh emphasis on execution and capital discipline; markets monitored for continuity versus change in portfolio moves. Consolidation and re‑rating potential around governance change; trading in a range while strategy clarity was awaited.

Jun 2024

BASF decided against investing in a nickel‑cobalt refining complex in Indonesia — a concrete sign of more selective upstream investment decisions in the battery raw‑materials chain [46]. Interpreted by investors as pragmatic capital‑allocation discipline — scaling back high‑capex upstream bets while retaining battery‑materials exposure via other routes. Short‑term modest pullback or sideways trading; longer‑term neutral to mildly positive as investors favored discipline.

2025–2026 (current)

BASF continues to execute on battery materials and recycling while managing legacy impacts and large capex programs; shares trade at €47.55 as BASF is judged on both cyclical chemistry earnings and the long‑term battery opportunity [48], [39]. Market views converged toward value with transformation optionality — a large, cyclical industrial with meaningful, capital‑intensive growth initiatives; investor focus is on cash‑flow recovery, capital discipline and tangible battery production milestones. After multi‑year volatility (2022 impairments through 2023 cleanup through 2024 transition), the chart shows stabilization and range with intermittent recovery attempts; price action consistent with a value and turnaround candidate at the stated level.